Galway United v St Patrick's Athl. prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Galway United 0–0 St Patrick's Athl. ST PATRICK'S ATHL. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said St Patrick's Athl. win~~41%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.747

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.955

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said St Patrick's Athl. win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: St Patrick's Athl. was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 29–30–41
1′KICK-OFF Galway United v St Patrick's Athl.
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was St Patrick's Athl. win 37%)
45′HALF-TIME Galway United 0–0 St Patrick's Athl.
47′SECOND HALF Galway United 0–0 St Patrick's Athl.
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' St Patrick's Athl. win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Connor Barratt · Galway United
54′We said St Patrick's Athl. at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 22–49–29
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' St Patrick's Athl. · On: Sean Hoare · Off: Ryan Sheridan
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' St Patrick's Athl. · On: Kian Leavy · Off: Romal Palmer
64′We said St Patrick's Athl. at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 19–57–24
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' St Patrick's Athl. win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
72′We said St Patrick's Athl. at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 15–67–19
72′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Sean Hoare · St Patrick's Athl.
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' St Patrick's Athl. · On: Sean mchale · Off: Sean Hoare
78′We said St Patrick's Athl. at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 11–75–14
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' St Patrick's Athl. win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Galway United · On: Dylan Connolly · Off: Ed McCarthy
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Galway United · On: francely lomboto · Off: Kristopher Twardek
83′We said St Patrick's Athl. at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–84–9
83′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Lee Devitt Molloy · Galway United
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' St Patrick's Athl. · On: Anthony Olusanya · Off: Christopher Forrester
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' St Patrick's Athl. · On: Jamie Lennon · Off: Aidan Keena
89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Aaron Bolger · Galway United
90′We said St Patrick's Athl. at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' St Patrick's Athl. win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME Galway United 0–0 St Patrick's Athl.
FTGalway United 0–0 St Patrick's Athl. · St Patrick's Athl. win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

St Patrick's Athl. are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Galway United 29%, draw 30%, St Patrick's Athl. 41%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Galway United v St Patrick's Athl.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Galway United win29%

Draw30%

St Patrick's Athl. win41%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 35

VenueEamonn Deacy Park

Line-ups

Galway United

3-4-3

St Patrick's Athl.

3-1-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Galway United

St Patrick's Athl.

4Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	St Patrick's Athl.	34	+25	59
7	Galway United	34	−5	41

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Galway United

3-4-3

16 Hugo Alberto Pires da Cunha

3 Connor Barratt

2 A. O'Connor

12 Gianfranco Facchineri

11 K. Twardek

8 A. Bolger

10 D. Hurley

20 L. Devitt

4 J. Keohane

7 S. Walsh

24 E. McCarthy

Coach · John Caulfield

Substitutes

23 · F. Pierrot

32 · Vincent Angelini

21 · D. Connolly

9 · F. Lomboto

17 · Junior Thiam

54 · C. Whittaker

28 · J. Morahan

St Patrick's Athl.

3-1-4-2

94 J. Anang

4 J. Redmond

16 D. Nugent

24 L. Turner

8 C. Forrester

23 J. Brown

48 R. Sheridan

17 R. Palmer

11 J. McClelland

27 R. Edmondson

9 A. Keena

Coach · S. Kenny

Substitutes

33 · S. McHale

21 · A. Olusanya

1 · D. Rogers

6 · J. Lennon

10 · K. Leavy

7 · Z. Elbouzedi

3 · A. Breslin

19 · B. Baggley

2 · S. Hoare

Our number · st patrick's athl. winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market58%

Us41%

~~Market~~58%

We make St Patrick's Athl. a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Galway United v St Patrick's Athl.~~1.02 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 41 v 59~~7 v 3

~~The market · St Patrick's Athl. win~~58% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · St Patrick's Athl. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Galway United win	29%	18%	+11
Draw	30%	24%	+6
St Patrick's Athl. win	41%	58%	−17
Over 2.5 goals	40%	55%	−15
Both teams to score	47%	54%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	68%	77%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	20%	34%	−14
Galway United or draw	59%	42%	+17
Galway United clean sheet	28%	–	–
St Patrick's Athl. clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 11.0 11.9 8.2 3.5 1 9.3 13.8 8.3 3.6 2 5.2 6.6 4.2 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Galway United down, St Patrick's Athl. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,075 Premier Division matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.8% of games this season, across 170 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Galway United at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Galway United, 1.28 for St Patrick's Athl.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STP 3–0 GAL · GAL 2–2 STP · STP 1–0 GAL · STP 1–1 GAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 28 Aug

GALWAY UNITED

LWLDWL2–3 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–3

ST PATRICK'S ATHL.

LWWWLL0–2 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	34	+19	65
2	Bohemians	34	+19	62
3	St Patrick's Athl.	34	+25	59
4	Shelbourne	34	+2	46
5	Derry City	34	+2	44
6	Dundalk	34	−5	42
7	Galway United	34	−5	41
8	Waterford	34	−10	37
9	Drogheda United	34	−13	37
10	Sligo Rovers	34	−34	24