Galway United v Shamrock Rovers prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30

Galway United 2–0 Shamrock Rovers SHAMROCK ROVERS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shamrock Rovers win~~44%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.805

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.971

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shamrock Rovers win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Shamrock Rovers 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 28–27–45
1′KICK-OFF Galway United v Shamrock Rovers
3′We said Shamrock Rovers at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 1–0 · 56–24–21
3′Galway United ahead on 2′ through Jimmy Keohane. 1–0. 1–0 · 56–24–21
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Galway United 1–0 Shamrock Rovers
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Shamrock Rovers win: 44% at kick-off, 21% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Galway United win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Shamrock Rovers win 21%)
9′We said Shamrock Rovers at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 57–24–19
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Matthew Healy · Shamrock Rovers
29′We said Shamrock Rovers at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Shamrock Rovers win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 61–25–14
42′We said Shamrock Rovers at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 89–9–2
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Galway United 2–0 Shamrock Rovers
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Shamrock Rovers win: 44% at kick-off, 2% now
43′Aaron Bolger scores for Galway United on 42′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 89–8–2
45′HALF-TIME Galway United 2–0 Shamrock Rovers
46′SECOND HALF Galway United 2–0 Shamrock Rovers
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Shamrock Rovers · On: Jonathan Afolabi · Off: Jake Mulraney
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Shamrock Rovers · On: Adam Brennan · Off: Matthew Healy
61′Shamrock Rovers have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Shamrock Rovers · On: William Fitzgerald · Off: John O'Reilly-O'Sullivan
69′Shamrock Rovers have had 13 attempts to 4 and it is still 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' John McGovern · Shamrock Rovers
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Shamrock Rovers · On: Daniel Grant · Off: Daniel Cleary
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Galway United · On: Matthew Wolfe · Off: Ed McCarthy
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Tunmise Sobowale · Shamrock Rovers
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Galway United · On: Dylan Connolly · Off: Stephen Walsh
FTFULL TIME Galway United 2–0 Shamrock Rovers
FTGalway United 2–0 Shamrock Rovers · Shamrock Rovers win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shamrock Rovers are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Galway United 27%, draw 29%, Shamrock Rovers 44%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Galway United v Shamrock RoversBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Galway United win27%

Draw29%

Shamrock Rovers win44%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 34

VenueEamonn Deacy Park

Line-ups

Galway United

3-5-2

Shamrock Rovers

3-1-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Galway United

Shamrock Rovers

6Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · FAI Cup

Last match: 12 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Galway United

3-5-2

16 Hugo Alberto Pires da Cunha

3 Connor Barratt

2 A. O'Connor

12 Gianfranco Facchineri

4 J. Keohane

8 A. Bolger

20 L. Devitt

10 D. Hurley

24 E. McCarthy

11 K. Twardek

7 S. Walsh

Coach · John Caulfield

Substitutes

15 · O. Williams

32 · Vincent Angelini

21 · D. Connolly

9 · F. Lomboto

23 · F. Pierrot

17 · Junior Thiam

14 · M. Wolfe

54 · C. Whittaker

28 · J. Morahan

Shamrock Rovers

3-1-4-2

1 E. McGinty

6 D. Cleary

4 Pico

5 L. Grace

8 M. Healy

22 T. Sobowale

7 D. Watts

29 J. Byrne

11 J. Mulraney

88 J. McGovern

10 G. Burke

Coach · S. Bradley

Substitutes

9 · A. Greene

17 · L. O'Regan

27 · C. O'Sullivan

26 · John O'Sullivan

25 · L. Steacy

21 · D. Grant

19 · A. Brennan

18 · J. Afolabi

24 · W. Fitzgerald

Our number · shamrock rovers winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

44% The market54%

Us44%

~~Market~~54%

We make Shamrock Rovers a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Galway United v Shamrock Rovers~~1.03 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 38 v 65~~7 v 1

~~The market · Shamrock Rovers win~~54% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shamrock Rovers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Galway United win	27%	21%	+6
Draw	29%	25%	+4
Shamrock Rovers win	44%	54%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	43%	52%	−9
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	75%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	22%	31%	−9
Galway United or draw	56%	46%	+10
Galway United clean sheet	26%	–	–
Shamrock Rovers clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.1 11.6 8.5 4.0 1 8.4 13.5 8.6 4.0 2 4.8 6.5 4.4 2.0 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Galway United down, Shamrock Rovers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,068 Premier Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Galway United at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Shamrock Rovers away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Galway United, 1.38 for Shamrock Rovers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SHA 3–1 GAL · GAL 1–3 SHA · SHA 2–0 GAL · SHA 1–0 GAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 21 Aug

GALWAY UNITED

WDLWLD2–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

SHAMROCK ROVERS

DDLWWW3–3 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	33	+21	65
2	St Patrick's Athl.	32	+27	59
3	Bohemians	33	+18	59
4	Shelbourne	33	+1	43
5	Derry City	32	+3	41
6	Dundalk	33	−5	41
7	Galway United	32	−6	38
8	Waterford	32	−10	34
9	Drogheda United	33	−15	34
10	Sligo Rovers	33	−34	23