Dundalk v Shamrock Rovers prediction · Premier Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

DundalkDrawShamrock Rovers

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Shamrock Rovers 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shamrock Rovers are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dundalk 28%, draw 26%, Shamrock Rovers 46%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Dundalk v Shamrock RoversBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Dundalk win28%

Draw26%

Shamrock Rovers win46%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 36

VenueOriel Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dundalk

Shamrock Rovers

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shamrock rovers winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

46% The market45%

Us46%

~~Market~~45%

We make Shamrock Rovers a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dundalk v Shamrock Rovers~~1.18 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 42 v 68~~7 v 1

~~The market · Shamrock Rovers win~~45% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shamrock Rovers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dundalk win	28%	28%	0
Draw	26%	26%	0
Shamrock Rovers win	46%	45%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	52%	56%	−4
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	35%	−5
Dundalk or draw	54%	55%	−1
Dundalk clean sheet	21%	–	–
Shamrock Rovers clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.2 9.2 7.9 4.2 1 6.7 12.4 9.2 4.9 2 4.4 6.9 5.4 2.9 3 2.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dundalk down, Shamrock Rovers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,080 Premier Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dundalk at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Shamrock Rovers away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Dundalk, 1.59 for Shamrock Rovers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SHA 3–2 DUN · DUN 1–0 SHA · SHA 1–1 DUN · DUN 0–1 SHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 11 Sept

DUNDALK

DLLLDL1–1 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

SHAMROCK ROVERS

LWWWLW0–2 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	35	+23	68
2	Bohemians	35	+18	62
3	St Patrick's Athl.	35	+25	60
4	Shelbourne	35	+3	49
5	Derry City	35	+3	47
6	Galway United	35	−5	42
7	Dundalk	35	−6	42
8	Waterford	35	−8	40
9	Drogheda United	35	−15	37
10	Sligo Rovers	35	−38	24