Drogheda United v Galway United prediction · Premier Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Drogheda UnitedDrawGalway United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Drogheda United 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Drogheda United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Drogheda United 39%, draw 29%, Galway United 32%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Drogheda United v Galway UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Drogheda United win39%

Draw29%

Galway United win32%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 36

VenueWeavers Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Drogheda United

Galway United

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Galway United	35	−5	42
9	Drogheda United	35	−15	37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drogheda united winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

39% The market42%

Us39%

~~Market~~42%

We make Drogheda United a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Drogheda United v Galway United~~1.31 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 37 v 42~~9 v 6

~~The market · Drogheda United win~~42% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Drogheda United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Drogheda United win	39%	42%	−3
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Galway United win	32%	30%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	53%	−8
Both teams to score	51%	58%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	24%	32%	−8
Drogheda United or draw	68%	70%	−2
Drogheda United clean sheet	32%	–	–
Galway United clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 9.4 9.0 5.7 2.2 1 10.2 13.6 7.4 2.9 2 7.3 8.3 4.8 3 3.2 3.7 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Drogheda United down, Galway United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,080 Premier Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Drogheda United at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Galway United away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Drogheda United, 1.16 for Galway United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DRO 1–2 GAL · GAL 0–0 DRO · DRO 2–3 GAL · GAL 0–1 DRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 11 Sept

DROGHEDA UNITED

WWLLWL2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 1–3

GALWAY UNITED

WLDWLD3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	35	+23	68
2	Bohemians	35	+18	62
3	St Patrick's Athl.	35	+25	60
4	Shelbourne	35	+3	49
5	Derry City	35	+3	47
6	Galway United	35	−5	42
7	Dundalk	35	−6	42
8	Waterford	35	−8	40
9	Drogheda United	35	−15	37
10	Sligo Rovers	35	−38	24