Drogheda United v Derry City prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30

Drogheda United 2–0 Derry City DERRY CITY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Derry City win~~42%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.743

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.759

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Derry City win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Derry City was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 31–27–43
1′KICK-OFF Drogheda United v Derry City
8′Drogheda United score on 7′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 58–23–19
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Drogheda United 1–0 Derry City
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Derry City win: 42% at kick-off, 19% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Drogheda United win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Derry City win 19%)
9′8′: Brandon Kavanagh on the scoresheet for Drogheda United, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 59–23–18
9′We said Derry City at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 59–23–18
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' nick twisk · Derry City
27′We said Derry City at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 62–24–14
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Derry City win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
37′7 shots for Derry City, 1 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 64–24–12
38′Derry City have had 10 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 64–24–12
45′HALF-TIME Drogheda United 1–0 Derry City
45′SECOND HALF Drogheda United 1–0 Derry City
46′Derry City have had 12 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 67–24–10
47′We said Derry City at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
60′19 shots for Derry City, 2 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 72–22–6
62′Derry City have had 20 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 74–21–5
64′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Edwin Agbaje · Drogheda United
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Derry City · On: Darragh Burns · Off: Kévin Santos
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Derry City · On: James Clarke · Off: Tyler·Smith
65′We said Derry City at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–20–4
70′Derry City have had 24 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 79–18–3
71′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Thomas Oluwa · Drogheda United
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Drogheda United · On: Mark Doyle · Off: Thomas Oluwa
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Drogheda United · On: Alfie Bates · Off: Brandon Kavanagh
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Derry City win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Derry City · On: Gavin Whyte · Off: Conor Barry
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Drogheda United · On: Jago Godden · Off: Shane Farrell
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Jamie Stott · Derry City
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Drogheda United 2–0 Derry City
84′Drogheda United ahead on 83′ through Mark Doyle. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′Derry City have had 28 attempts to 3 and it is still 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Drogheda United · On: Keegan Ancelin · Off: Warren Davis
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Jago Godden · Drogheda United
FTFULL TIME Drogheda United 2–0 Derry City
FTDrogheda United 2–0 Derry City · Derry City win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Derry City are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Drogheda United 30%, draw 28%, Derry City 42%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Drogheda United v Derry CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Drogheda United win30%

Draw28%

Derry City win42%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 34

VenueUnited Park

Line-ups

Drogheda United

3-4-2-1

Derry City

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Drogheda United

Derry City

8Days since last match6

Last match: 8 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

Last match: 10 Oct · FAI Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Derry City	32	+3	41
9	Drogheda United	33	−15	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Drogheda United

3-4-2-1

44 Fynn Michael Cordell Talley

4 A. Quinn

22 C. Keeley

5 Leo Burney

2 E. Agbaje

8 Ethan O'Brien

17 S. Farrell

3 C. Kane

10 B. Kavanagh

24 W. Davis

11 T. Oluwa

Coach · K. Doherty

Substitutes

15 · A. Bates

9 · K. Ancelin

18 · J. Bolger

31 · K. Cruise

14 · M. Doyle

6 · J. Godden

36 · theo hennessy

32 · D. Mare

25 · R. Markey

Derry City

4-3-3

13 Tom Norcott

23 C. Dummigan

4 J. Stott

3 Patrick McClean

19 B. Fleming

22 C. Barr

17 N. Twisk

14 E. Chapman

21 Kévin Santos

29 T. Smith

7 M. Duffy

Coach · Mark Connolly

Substitutes

11 · G. Whyte

15 · J. Clarke

32 · T. Doherty

25 · Christy Grogan

24 · Brooklyn Lyons-Foster

1 · B. Maher

10 · D. Markey

12 · D. Burns

34 · C. O'Donnell

Our number · derry city winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

42% The market42%

Us42%

~~Market~~42%

We make Derry City a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Drogheda United v Derry City~~1.14 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 7 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 34 v 41~~9 v 5

~~The market · Derry City win~~42% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Derry City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Drogheda United win	30%	29%	+1
Draw	28%	28%	0
Derry City win	42%	42%	0
Over 2.5 goals	47%	47%	0
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	73%	71%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	26%	−1
Drogheda United or draw	58%	58%	0
Drogheda United clean sheet	25%	–	–
Derry City clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 8.9 10.1 7.7 3.6 1 8.2 13.4 8.6 4.0 2 5.2 7.1 4.9 2.3 3 2.0 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Drogheda United down, Derry City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,068 Premier Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Drogheda United at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Derry City away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Drogheda United, 1.40 for Derry City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DER 2–0 DRO · DRO 1–0 DER · DER 2–2 DRO · DRO 1–1 DER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 7 Aug

DROGHEDA UNITED

LLWWLL0–2 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–3

DERRY CITY

WLDWDW2–0 · 3–5 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	33	+21	65
2	St Patrick's Athl.	32	+27	59
3	Bohemians	33	+18	59
4	Shelbourne	33	+1	43
5	Derry City	32	+3	41
6	Dundalk	33	−5	41
7	Galway United	32	−6	38
8	Waterford	32	−10	34
9	Drogheda United	33	−15	34
10	Sligo Rovers	33	−34	23