Derry City v St Patrick's Athl. prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 22:30

Derry City 1–0 St Patrick's Athl. DERRY CITY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Derry City win~~37%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.601

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.796

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Derry City win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Derry City was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–33
1′KICK-OFF Derry City v St Patrick's Athl.
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Darragh Burns · Derry City
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Derry City win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Derry City 0–0 St Patrick's Athl.
46′SECOND HALF Derry City 0–0 St Patrick's Athl.
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Derry City · On: Conor Barry · Off: Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Derry City win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
55′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Anthony Olusanya · St Patrick's Athl.
57′We said Derry City at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 25–51–24
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' St Patrick's Athl. · On: Ryan Edmondson · Off: Aidan Keena
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' St Patrick's Athl. · On: Jason McClelland · Off: Anto Breslin
60′We said Derry City at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–53–22
62′We published Derry City at 37%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–4
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Derry City 1–0 St Patrick's Athl.
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Derry City win: 37% at kick-off, 78% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Derry City win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 55%)
63′62′: Kévin Santos on the scoresheet for Derry City, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–18–3
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' St Patrick's Athl. · On: Christopher Forrester · Off: Kian Leavy
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' St Patrick's Athl. · On: Ryan Sheridan · Off: Barry Baggley
65′We published Derry City at 37%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' James Clarke · Derry City
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Derry City · On: Darragh Markey · Off: Kévin Santos
74′We published Derry City at 37%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–1
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' St Patrick's Athl. · On: Romal Palmer · Off: Luke·Turner
77′15 shots for St Patrick's Athl., 10 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 87–12–1
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Derry City win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
79′St Patrick's Athl. have had 16 attempts to 10 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 89–10–1
80′We published Derry City at 37%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Derry City · On: Cameron Dummigan · Off: nick twisk
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Christopher Forrester · St Patrick's Athl.
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Derry City · On: Terence Doherty · Off: Tyler·Smith
87′We published Derry City at 37%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′St Patrick's Athl. have had 20 attempts to 10 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 95–5–0
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Derry City win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
94′St Patrick's Athl. have had 24 attempts to 10 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Derry City 1–0 St Patrick's Athl.
FTDerry City 1–0 St Patrick's Athl. · Derry City win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Derry City just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Derry City 37%, draw 30%, St Patrick's Athl. 33%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Derry City v St Patrick's Athl.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

Derry City win37%

Draw30%

St Patrick's Athl. win33%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueBrandywell Stadium

Line-ups

Derry City

4-3-3

St Patrick's Athl.

3-1-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Derry City

St Patrick's Athl.

3Days since last match3

Last match: 16 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	St Patrick's Athl.	33	+26	59
6	Derry City	33	+1	41

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Derry City

4-3-3

13 Tom Norcott

24 Brooklyn Lyons-Foster

4 J. Stott

3 Patrick McClean

19 B. Fleming

15 J. Clarke

17 N. Twisk

14 E. Chapman

12 D. Burns

29 T. Smith

21 Kévin Santos

Coach · Mark Connolly

Substitutes

23 · C. Dummigan

32 · T. Doherty

22 · C. Barr

25 · Christy Grogan

35 · L. Kelly

1 · B. Maher

10 · D. Markey

34 · C. O'Donnell

11 · G. Whyte

St Patrick's Athl.

3-1-4-2

94 J. Anang

4 J. Redmond

2 S. Hoare

24 L. Turner

6 J. Lennon

7 Z. Elbouzedi

10 K. Leavy

19 B. Baggley

3 A. Breslin

21 A. Olusanya

9 A. Keena

Coach · S. Kenny

Substitutes

48 · R. Sheridan

23 · J. Brown

27 · R. Edmondson

8 · C. Forrester

11 · J. McClelland

33 · S. McHale

16 · D. Nugent

17 · R. Palmer

1 · D. Rogers

Our number · derry city winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

37% The market28%

Us37%

~~Market~~28%

We make Derry City a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Derry City v St Patrick's Athl.~~1.20 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 41 v 59~~6 v 3

~~The market · Derry City win~~28% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Derry City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 31% to 28% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Derry City win	37%	28%	+9
Draw	30%	28%	+2
St Patrick's Athl. win	33%	44%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Both teams to score	48%	52%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	27%	−6
Derry City or draw	67%	56%	+11
Derry City clean sheet	33%	–	–
St Patrick's Athl. clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 10.8 10.0 6.2 2.4 1 10.7 14.0 7.4 2.8 2 7.0 7.8 4.4 3 2.8 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Derry City down, St Patrick's Athl. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,073 Premier Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.8% of games this season, across 168 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Derry City at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Derry City, 1.13 for St Patrick's Athl.. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 19:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STP 1–1 DER · DER 0–0 STP · STP 0–0 DER · DER 2–2 STP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 21 Aug

DERRY CITY

LDWDWL3–5 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–2

ST PATRICK'S ATHL.

WLWWWL2–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	34	+19	65
2	Bohemians	34	+19	62
3	St Patrick's Athl.	33	+26	59
4	Shelbourne	34	+2	46
5	Dundalk	34	−5	42
6	Derry City	33	+1	41
7	Galway United	33	−4	41
8	Drogheda United	34	−13	37
9	Waterford	33	−11	34
10	Sligo Rovers	34	−34	24