Derry City v Dundalk prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Derry City 2–1 Dundalk DERRY CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Derry City win~~54%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.316

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.311

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Derry City win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Derry City 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–21
1′KICK-OFF Derry City v Dundalk
12′We said Derry City at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Derry City 1–0 Dundalk
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Derry City win: 54% at kick-off, 79% now
14′James Clarke scores for Derry City on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 79–15–6
41′We said Derry City at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Darragh Burns · Derry City
45′SECOND HALF Derry City 1–0 Dundalk
46′HALF-TIME Derry City 1–0 Dundalk
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Keith Buckley · Dundalk
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Dundalk · On: Robert Cornwall · Off: Egor Vassenin
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Dundalk · On: Harry Groome · Off: Declan McDaid
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Trevor Clarke · Dundalk
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Derry City win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
67′We said Derry City at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Derry City · On: Darragh Markey · Off: Adam O'Reilly
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Dundalk · On: Harvey Warren · Off: Tyreke Wilson
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Dundalk · On: Cian dillon · Off: Trevor Clarke
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Dundalk · On: shane tracey · Off: Keith Buckley
71′We said Derry City at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
71′71′: Michael Duffy on the scoresheet for Derry City, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Derry City 2–0 Dundalk
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Derry City win: 54% at kick-off, 99% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Derry City · On: Gavin Whyte · Off: Michael Duffy
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Derry City · On: Kévin Santos · Off: Darragh Burns
79′We said Derry City at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Derry City 2–1 Dundalk
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Derry City win: 54% at kick-off, 90% now
80′Dundalk pull one back on 79′ through shane tracey. 2–1. 2–1 · 91–8–1
80′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 91–8–1
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Derry City win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Derry City · On: Terence Doherty · Off: James Clarke
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Derry City · On: Conor Barry · Off: Cameron Dummigan
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Ellis Chapman · Derry City
93′2–1 at the end. Our 54% on Derry City comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Derry City 2–1 Dundalk
FTDerry City 2–1 Dundalk · Derry City win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Derry City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Derry City 54%, draw 25%, Dundalk 21%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Derry City v DundalkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Derry City win54%

Draw25%

Dundalk win21%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 35

VenueBrandywell Stadium

Line-ups

Derry City

3-4-3

Dundalk

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Derry City

Dundalk

4Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

Last match: 17 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Derry City	34	+2	44
6	Dundalk	34	−5	42

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Derry City

3-4-3

1 B. Maher

23 C. Dummigan

4 J. Stott

3 Patrick McClean

12 D. Burns

8 A. O'Reilly

14 E. Chapman

19 B. Fleming

15 J. Clarke

17 N. Twisk

7 M. Duffy

Coach · Mark Connolly

Substitutes

22 · C. Barr

32 · T. Doherty

24 · Brooklyn Lyons-Foster

10 · D. Markey

13 · Tom Norcott

29 · T. Smith

11 · G. Whyte

21 · Kévin Santos

25 · Christy Grogan

Dundalk

4-2-3-1

1 E. Minogue

3 B. Burns

44 T. Grivosti

16 E. Vassenin

22 T. Wilson

18 K. Buckley

6 A. Dervin

27 D. McDaid

7 D. Horgan

15 T. Clarke

11 R. Teahan

Coach · C. Kilduff

Substitutes

14 · Norman Garbett

10 · Leonardo Gaxha

8 · H. Groome

12 · L. Mulligan

17 · S. Tracey

5 · H. Warren

9 · C. Dillon

24 · R. Cornwall

13 · P. Cherrie

Our number · derry city winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

54% The market55%

Us54%

~~Market~~55%

We make Derry City a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Derry City v Dundalk~~1.78 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 44 v 42~~5 v 6

~~The market · Derry City win~~55% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Derry City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Derry City win	54%	55%	−1
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Dundalk win	21%	22%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	60%	−7
Both teams to score	54%	60%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	78%	81%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	39%	−8
Derry City or draw	79%	78%	+1
Derry City clean sheet	36%	–	–
Dundalk clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.9 5.5 3.2 1 10.0 11.7 5.6 2 9.5 9.7 5.0 3 5.7 5.7 3.0 4 2.6 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Derry City down, Dundalk across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,075 Premier Division matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.8% of games this season, across 170 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Derry City at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Dundalk away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Derry City, 1.03 for Dundalk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DER 4–2 DUN · DUN 2–1 DER · DUN 2–2 DER · DER 2–2 DUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 28 Aug

DERRY CITY

DWDWLW3–3 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

DUNDALK

WDLLLD3–2 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	34	+19	65
2	Bohemians	34	+19	62
3	St Patrick's Athl.	34	+25	59
4	Shelbourne	34	+2	46
5	Derry City	34	+2	44
6	Dundalk	34	−5	42
7	Galway United	34	−5	41
8	Waterford	34	−10	37
9	Drogheda United	34	−13	37
10	Sligo Rovers	34	−34	24