Bohemians v Waterford prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30

Bohemians 2–1 Waterford BOHEMIANS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bohemians win~~58%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.267

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.297

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bohemians win at 58%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bohemians 58% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–21–20
1′KICK-OFF Bohemians v Waterford
13′A goal for Bohemians on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–7
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Bohemians 1–0 Waterford
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Bohemians win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
14′We said Bohemians at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–7
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–6
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Bohemians 1–1 Waterford
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Bohemians win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
40′38′: Padraig Amond on the scoresheet for Waterford, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 48–32–20
44′We said Bohemians at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 1–1 · 46–34–20
45′HALF-TIME Bohemians 1–1 Waterford
45′SECOND HALF Bohemians 1–1 Waterford
49′We said Bohemians at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–37–19
50′🟨 YELLOW · 48' cian byrne · Bohemians
51′PENALTY MISSED · 49' Tom Lonergan · Waterford
58′We said Bohemians at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–43–18
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Bohemians win 39%)
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Bohemians win: 58% at kick-off, 38% now
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Bohemians 2–1 Waterford
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Bohemians win: 58% at kick-off, 83% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Bohemians win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 14%)
65′Bohemians ahead on 64′ through Ryan Burke. 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
68′We said Bohemians at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Bohemians win: 58% at kick-off, 88% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Bohemians · On: Colm Whelan · Off: James Taylor
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Bohemians · On: Markuss Strods · Off: Harry Patrick Vaughan
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Bohemians · On: Niall Morahan · Off: Sadou Diallo
77′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Niall Morahan · Bohemians
79′We said Bohemians at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Bohemians · On: Patrick Hickey · Off: Ryan Burke
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Waterford · On: Jørgen Voilås · Off: Noah Mawene
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Waterford · On: Evan McLaughlin · Off: Luke Heeney
86′We said Bohemians at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Waterford · On: Dean Mcmenamy · Off: Jordan Houston
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Bohemians win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Bohemians · On: Dayle Rooney · Off: Connor Parsons
FTFULL TIME Bohemians 2–1 Waterford
FTBohemians 2–1 Waterford · Bohemians win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bohemians are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bohemians 58%, draw 23%, Waterford 20%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Bohemians v WaterfordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Bohemians win58%

Draw23%

Waterford win20%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 34

VenueDalymount Park

Line-ups

Bohemians

4-2-3-1

Waterford

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bohemians

Waterford

4Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

Last match: 9 Oct · FAI Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bohemians	33	+18	59
8	Waterford	32	−10	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bohemians

4-2-3-1

25 P. Walters

16 D. Power

24 C. Byrne

22 S. Todd

3 R. Burke

5 S. Diallo

6 J. Flores

26 R. Tierney

8 H. Vaughan

7 C. Parsons

18 D. James-Taylor

Coach · A. Reynolds

Substitutes

9 · C. Whelan

12 · P. Hickey

1 · K. Chorążka

21 · Josh Adam

41 · P. Madden

4 · N. Morahan

23 · Zane Myers

11 · D. Rooney

32 · M. Strods

Waterford

3-4-1-2

1 S. McMullan

16 H. Cann

5 J. Mahon

13 K. Long

2 J. Houston

15 L. Heeney

7 N. Mawene

3 Benny Couto

10 C. Noonan

9 P. Amond

18 T. Lonergan

Coach · G. Coughlan

Substitutes

6 · J. Ashton

56 · A. Brennan

11 · T. Coyle

21 · Arlo Ricky Hugh Doherty

17 · J. Faria

8 · E. McLaughlin

27 · D. McMenamy

32 · G. Amedu

20 · J. Voilås

Our number · bohemians winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

58% The market55%

Us58%

~~Market~~55%

We make Bohemians a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bohemians v Waterford~~2.03 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 9 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 59 v 34~~3 v 8

~~The market · Bohemians win~~55% · ours 58%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bohemians win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bohemians win	58%	55%	+3
Draw	23%	23%	0
Waterford win	20%	22%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	60%	63%	−3
Both teams to score	58%	62%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	38%	43%	−5
Bohemians or draw	80%	78%	+2
Bohemians clean sheet	33%	–	–
Waterford clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.2 4.2 2.7 1 8.2 10.4 5.4 2 8.9 9.7 5.4 3 6.0 6.6 3.6 4 3.1 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bohemians down, Waterford across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,068 Premier Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bohemians at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Waterford away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Bohemians, 1.10 for Waterford. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BOH 0–2 WAT · WAT 3–1 BOH · BOH 1–1 WAT · WAT 0–1 BOH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 9 Aug

BOHEMIANS

WWWWWL5–3 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

WATERFORD

WDWDDL3–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	33	+21	65
2	St Patrick's Athl.	32	+27	59
3	Bohemians	33	+18	59
4	Shelbourne	33	+1	43
5	Derry City	32	+3	41
6	Dundalk	33	−5	41
7	Galway United	32	−6	38
8	Waterford	32	−10	34
9	Drogheda United	33	−15	34
10	Sligo Rovers	33	−34	23