Bohemians v Shelbourne prediction · Premier Division

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Bohemians 0–1 Shelbourne BOHEMIANS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bohemians win~~46%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.814

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.036

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bohemians win at 46%.
7′Much as we predicted: Bohemians was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
21′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Connor Parsons · Bohemians
35′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Bohemians · On: Z. Myers · Off: Ross Tierney
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Bohemians win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′HALF-TIME Bohemians 0–0 Shelbourne
45′SECOND HALF Bohemians 0–0 Shelbourne
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Bohemians win 38%)
50′We said Bohemians at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–43–23
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 36–40–24
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Bohemians · On: Patrick Hickey · Off: Sadou Diallo
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Jonathan Lunney · Shelbourne
61′We said Bohemians at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Bohemians win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Shelbourne · On: Ademipo Odubeko · Off: Jonathan Lunney
69′We said Bohemians at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bohemians · On: Colm Whelan · Off: James Taylor
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bohemians · On: Senan Mullen · Off: Ryan Burke
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bohemians · On: Markuss Strods · Off: Harry Patrick Vaughan
75′We said Bohemians at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Bohemians win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
80′We said Bohemians at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
84′We said Bohemians at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–6
85′We said Bohemians at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–8–92
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Shelbourne · On: Joey Ikala Wuna · Off: John Martin
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Bohemians 0–1 Shelbourne
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Bohemians win: 46% at kick-off, under 1% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Shelbourne win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 85%)
87′Shelbourne ahead on 85′ through Ademipo Odubeko. 0–1. 0–1 · 0–7–93
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Shelbourne · On: Sam Bone · Off: Sean Moore
FTFULL TIME Bohemians 0–1 Shelbourne
FTBohemians 0–1 Shelbourne · Bohemians win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bohemians are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bohemians 46%, draw 27%, Shelbourne 27%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Bohemians v ShelbourneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bohemians win46%

Draw27%

Shelbourne win27%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 35

VenueDalymount Park

Line-ups

Bohemians

4-2-3-1

Shelbourne

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bohemians

Shelbourne

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · the Irish Premier Division

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bohemians	34	+19	62
4	Shelbourne	34	+2	46

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bohemians

4-2-3-1

25 P. Walters

16 D. Power

24 C. Byrne

22 S. Todd

3 R. Burke

5 S. Diallo

6 J. Flores

26 R. Tierney

8 H. Vaughan

7 C. Parsons

18 D. James-Taylor

Coach · A. Reynolds

Substitutes

1 · K. Chorążka

12 · P. Hickey

4 · N. Morahan

15 · S. Mullen

11 · D. Rooney

32 · M. Strods

9 · C. Whelan

23 · Zane Myers

21 · Josh Adam

Shelbourne

5-4-1

19 E. Beach

17 D. Kelly

6 J. Lunney

16 O. Casey

4 K. Ledwidge

18 James Barry Norris

22 S. Moore

21 Jack Henry-Francis

23 K. McInroy

27 E. Caffrey

10 J. Martin

Coach · J. Russell

Substitutes

31 · C. Walsh

55 · James Roche

44 · Daniel Ring

11 · M. Odubeko

36 · W. Jarvis

2 · S. Gannon

9 · S. Boyd

15 · S. Bone

56 · J. Wuna

Our number · bohemians winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market57%

Us46%

~~Market~~57%

We make Bohemians a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bohemians v Shelbourne~~1.52 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 62 v 46~~2 v 4

~~The market · Bohemians win~~57% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bohemians win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bohemians win	46%	57%	−11
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Shelbourne win	27%	19%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	49%	56%	−7
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	35%	−8
Bohemians or draw	73%	81%	−8
Bohemians clean sheet	33%	–	–
Shelbourne clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.2 7.2 4.5 1 10.1 12.9 6.7 2.5 2 8.3 9.1 5.1 3 4.2 4.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bohemians down, Shelbourne across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,075 Premier Division matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.8% of games this season, across 170 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bohemians at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Shelbourne away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Bohemians, 1.11 for Shelbourne. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SHE 0–3 BOH · BOH 2–2 SHE · SHE 0–0 BOH · BOH 2–3 SHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier Division this season · since 28 Aug

BOHEMIANS

WWWWLW3–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

SHELBOURNE

LLWDWW0–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Shamrock Rovers	34	+19	65
2	Bohemians	34	+19	62
3	St Patrick's Athl.	34	+25	59
4	Shelbourne	34	+2	46
5	Derry City	34	+2	44
6	Dundalk	34	−5	42
7	Galway United	34	−5	41
8	Waterford	34	−10	37
9	Drogheda United	34	−13	37
10	Sligo Rovers	34	−34	24