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Wexford v UCD

Wexford
2–5Full time
UCD

First Division · FRI 16 OCT · Ferrycarrig Park

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30
Wexford 2–5 UCD UCD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said UCD win41%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.521
The market’s Brier score0.620

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said UCD win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: UCD 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 34–25–41
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Wexford v UCD
  4. 4′A goal for UCD on 4′. 0–0 · 34–25–41
  5. 4′We said UCD at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 0–1 · 15–19–66
  6. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Wexford 0–1 UCD
  7. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' UCD win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
  8. 6′UCD ahead on 5′ through H. Smith. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–19–66
  9. 9′A goal for Wexford on 8′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–26–40
  10. 9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Wexford 1–1 UCD
  11. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' UCD win: 41% at kick-off, 40% now
  12. 29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Wexford
  13. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Wexford 1–2 UCD
  14. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' UCD win: 41% at kick-off, 68% now
  15. 30′UCD score on 29′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 11–20–68
  16. 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 11–20–68
  17. 34′UCD find the net on 34′. 1–2 · 11–21–69
  18. 34′We said UCD at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–3 · 3–8–89
  19. 34′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 3–8–89
  20. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Wexford 1–3 UCD
  21. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' UCD win: 41% at kick-off, 89% now
  22. 35′We said UCD at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–3 · 3–8–90
  23. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' UCD win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
  24. 45′HALF-TIME Wexford 1–3 UCD
  25. 45′SECOND HALF Wexford 1–3 UCD
  26. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Wexford · On: G. Hodgins · Off: R. McCourt
  27. 59′We said UCD at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–3 · 1–5–95
  28. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' J. Goad · UCD
  29. 61′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–1–99
  30. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Wexford 1–4 UCD
  31. 62′A goal for UCD on 61′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–1–99
  32. 63′H. Smith scores for UCD on 62′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–1–99
  33. 65′We said UCD at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  34. 69′Wexford score on 69′ to make it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–3–97
  35. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Wexford 2–4 UCD
  36. 70′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–3–97
  37. 70′70′: K. Dignam on the scoresheet for Wexford. 2–5 · 0–0–100
  38. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Wexford 2–5 UCD
  39. 71′UCD find the net on 71′. 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
  40. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Wexford · On: K. Byrne · Off: L. Doyle
  41. 72′UCD ahead on 70′ through L. Dignam. 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
  42. 73′7 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–5 · 0–0–100
  43. 74′UCD ahead on 73′ through S. Norval. 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
  44. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' UCD · On: S. Norval · Off: C. Akinrintayo
  45. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' UCD · On: R. McBrearty · Off: H. Smith
  46. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 75' UCD · On: S. Mohan · Off: J. Goad
  47. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' UCD · On: N. Holohan · Off: L. Cailloce
  48. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' UCD · On: M. Alonge · Off: C. Behan
  49. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Wexford · On: I. Voloshyn · Off: J. Doyle
  50. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Wexford · On: A. Mazur · Off: M. Rowe
  51. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Wexford
  52. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Wexford
  53. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' UCD
  54. FTFULL TIME Wexford 2–5 UCD
  55. FTWexford 2–5 UCD · UCD win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UCD are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wexford 35%, draw 24%, UCD 41%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Wexford v UCDBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Wexford win35%
Draw24%
UCD win41%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 36

VenueFerrycarrig Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wexford

UCD

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · First Division

Last match: 9 Oct · First Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3UCD35+1353
8Wexford35−1142

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ucd winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
41% The market36%
Us41%
Market36%

We make UCD a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Wexford v UCD1.39 – 1.54
Form · last six in First Division this season · since 4 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 42 v 538 v 3
The market · UCD win36% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 10 OCT 03:5616 OCT 19:09
Our probability · UCD win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Wexford win35%38%−3
Draw24%26%−2
UCD win41%36%+5
Over 2.5 goals56%60%−4
Both teams to score58%63%−5
Over 1.5 goals78%80%−2
Over 3.5 goals34%40%−6
Wexford or draw59%64%−5
Wexford clean sheet22%––
UCD clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%
0123450 5.2 8.7 6.3 3.3 1 8.0 10.8 8.5 4.4 2 5.2 7.8 5.9 3.0 3 2.4 3.6 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Wexford down, UCD across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsUCD 4–1 WEX · WEX 2–1 UCD · UCD 0–0 WEX · WEX 0–3 UCD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Division this season · since 4 Sept

WEXFORD

WLWLDD1–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 2–2

UCD

DDLLWD1–1 · 2–2 · 1–5 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Cork City35+3974
2Bray Wanderers35+1654
3UCD35+1353
4Kerry35+451
5Longford Town35+249
6Cobh Ramblers35−649
7Athlone Town35048
8Wexford35−1142
9Treaty United35−1839
10Finn Harps35−3925

The competition's standings before kick-off.