UCD v Longford Town prediction · First Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

UCDDrawLongford Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · UCD 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

UCD are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UCD 55%, draw 22%, Longford Town 24%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on UCD v Longford TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

UCD win55%

Draw22%

Longford Town win24%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundSemi-finals

VenueUCD Bowl

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UCD

Longford Town

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · First Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	UCD	36	+16	56
5	Longford Town	36	+3	52

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ucd winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make UCD a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UCD v Longford Town~~1.91 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in First Division this season · since 18 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 56 v 52~~2 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · UCD win

Published at 53%, 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UCD win	55%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Longford Town win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
UCD or draw	76%	–	–
UCD clean sheet	32%	–	–
Longford Town clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.5 5.9 3.2 1 9.3 9.8 5.9 2.3 2 8.4 9.6 5.6 2.2 3 5.3 6.1 3.5 4 2.6 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UCD down, Longford Town across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,025 First Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 182 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UCD at home: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Longford Town away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for UCD, 1.17 for Longford Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LON 0–2 UCD · UCD 1–1 LON · LON 2–1 UCD · UCD 2–0 LON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Division this season · since 18 Sept

UCD

LLWDWW1–5 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 5–2 · 2–0

LONGFORD TOWN

WWDDWL1–0 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cork City	36	+39	75
2	UCD	36	+16	56
3	Bray Wanderers	36	+14	54
4	Kerry FC	36	+4	52
5	Longford Town	36	+3	52
6	Cobh Ramblers	36	−8	49
7	Athlone Town	36	−1	48
8	Wexford	36	−14	42
9	Treaty United	36	−16	42
10	Finn Harps	36	−37	28