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UCD v Longford Town

UCD

1–1Full time

Longford Town

First Division · FRI 9 OCT · UCD Bowl

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

UCD 1–1 Longford Town UCD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said UCD win~~53%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.962

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.926

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UCD win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: UCD was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–25
1′KICK-OFF UCD v Longford Town
17′🟨 YELLOW · 18' UCD
34′⚽ GOAL · 36' UCD 0–0 Longford Town
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' UCD 1–0 Longford Town
35′⚽ GOAL · 36' UCD 1–0 Longford Town
45′SECOND HALF UCD 1–0 Longford Town
61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' UCD
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Longford Town
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' C. Omorehiomwan · Longford Town
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' C. Omorehiomwan · Longford Town
69′⚽ GOAL · 70' UCD 1–0 Longford Town
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' UCD 1–1 Longford Town · L. Dignam
72′⚽ GOAL · 70' UCD 1–1 Longford Town · J. Bailey
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Longford Town
83′SUBSTITUTION · 73' UCD · On: C. Akinrintayo · Off: E. Sheeran Corrected
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Longford Town
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Longford Town · On: A. Paraschiv · Off: J. Bailey
FTFULL TIME UCD 1–1 Longford Town
FTUCD 1–1 Longford Town · UCD win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

UCD win53%

Draw22%

Longford Town win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · UCD Bowl

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

UCD

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Kavanagh

5 C. Lennox

22 T. Morley

24 S. Norval

8 L. Dignam

10 C. Behan

18 N. Holohan

27 E. Sheeran

12 M. Alonge

14 H. Curtis

31 S. Mohan

Coach · William O'Connor

Substitutes

3 · L. Cailloce

16 · N. Douglas

26 · D. Costello

11 · H. Smith

21 · G. Ogbonna

15 · C. Akinrintayo

23 · R. McBrearty

6 · A. Wells

2 · S. Murphy

Longford Town

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Moore

5 T. McCarthy

12 C. Omorehiomwan

21 J. Hough

6 S. Adenekan

15 D. Murtagh

20 A. O'Brien

10 A. Doran

9 S. Ugbesia

16 J. Bailey

28 S. Moore

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · L. Woodcock

7 · D. George

8 · P. Manuel

11 · M. Harris

18 · S. Brady

19 · F. Campbell

23 · A. Paraschiv

24 · R. Dawson

27 · K. Brunton

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

UCD

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Kavanagh

5 C. Lennox

22 T. Morley

24 S. Norval

8 L. Dignam

10 C. Behan

18 N. Holohan

27 E. Sheeran

12 M. Alonge

14 H. Curtis

31 S. Mohan

Coach · William O'Connor

Substitutes

3 · L. Cailloce

16 · N. Douglas

26 · D. Costello

11 · H. Smith

21 · G. Ogbonna

15 · C. Akinrintayo

23 · R. McBrearty

6 · A. Wells

2 · S. Murphy

Longford Town

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Moore

5 T. McCarthy

12 C. Omorehiomwan

21 J. Hough

6 S. Adenekan

15 D. Murtagh

20 A. O'Brien

10 A. Doran

9 S. Ugbesia

16 J. Bailey

28 S. Moore

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · L. Woodcock

7 · D. George

8 · P. Manuel

11 · M. Harris

18 · S. Brady

19 · F. Campbell

23 · A. Paraschiv

24 · R. Dawson

27 · K. Brunton

Our number · ucd winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

53% The market54%

Us53%

~~Market~~54%

We make UCD a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UCD win	53%	54%	−1
Draw	22%	24%	−2
Longford Town win	25%	23%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	60%	62%	−2
Both teams to score	59%	61%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	42%	−4
UCD or draw	75%	77%	−3
UCD clean sheet	30%	–	–
Longford Town clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.2 6.0 3.4 1 8.9 9.7 6.2 2.6 2 7.9 9.4 5.7 2.4 3 5.0 5.9 3.6 4 2.4 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UCD down, Longford Town across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,013 First Division matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 170 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.18 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UCD at home: 3.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Longford Town away: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for UCD, 1.23 for Longford Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.18

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~6 of 11

~~Last meetings~~LON 2–1 UCD · UCD 2–0 LON · LON 0–0 UCD · UCD 2–1 LON

Form · last six in First Division

UCD

WDDLLW5–4 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–5 · 1–3 · 4–0

LONGFORD TOWN

DLLWWD2–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cork City	34	+37	71
2	Bray Wanderers	34	+16	53
3	UCD	34	+13	52
4	Cobh Ramblers	34	−4	49
5	Longford Town	34	+2	48
6	Kerry	34	+2	48
7	Athlone Town	34	+1	48
8	Wexford	34	−11	41
9	Treaty United	34	−19	36
10	Finn Harps	34	−37	25