Treaty United v Cobh Ramblers prediction · First Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30

Treaty United 2–0 Cobh Ramblers COBH RAMBLERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cobh Ramblers win~~39%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.617

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.916

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cobh Ramblers win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cobh Ramblers was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
1′KICK-OFF Treaty United v Cobh Ramblers
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Cobh Ramblers
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Cobh Ramblers win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Treaty United 0–0 Cobh Ramblers
45′SECOND HALF Treaty United 0–0 Cobh Ramblers
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Cobh Ramblers win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 30–39–31
57′We said Cobh Ramblers at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 26–47–27
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Cobh Ramblers
63′We said Cobh Ramblers at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 23–52–24
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Treaty United · On: B. Regan · Off: M. Walsh
66′We said Cobh Ramblers at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 77–19–4
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Treaty United
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Treaty United 1–0 Cobh Ramblers
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Cobh Ramblers win: 39% at kick-off, 4% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Treaty United win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
67′Treaty United score on 67′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–19–4
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Treaty United · On: J. Oyenuga · Off: B. Feeney
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Treaty United · On: C. Whelan · Off: M. Jones
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Cobh Ramblers
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Cobh Ramblers · On: C. Coleman · Off: O. Crowe
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Cobh Ramblers · On: M. Carroll · Off: A. Adenopo
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Cobh Ramblers · On: D. McCormick · Off: B. Linehan
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Treaty United 2–0 Cobh Ramblers
89′Treaty United find the net on 89′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′Full time, 2–0. We called Cobh Ramblers at 39% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–0 · 100–0–0
92′🟥 RED CARD · 90+2' Cobh Ramblers
93′A red card for Cobh Ramblers on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 100–0–0
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Treaty United
FTFULL TIME Treaty United 2–0 Cobh Ramblers
FTTreaty United 2–0 Cobh Ramblers · Cobh Ramblers win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Cobh Ramblers just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Treaty United 36%, draw 25%, Cobh Ramblers 39%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Treaty United v Cobh RamblersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Treaty United win36%

Draw25%

Cobh Ramblers win39%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 36

VenueMarkets Field

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Treaty United

Cobh Ramblers

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · First Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Cobh Ramblers	35	−6	49
9	Treaty United	35	−18	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cobh ramblers winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

39% The market52%

Us39%

~~Market~~52%

We make Cobh Ramblers a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Treaty United v Cobh Ramblers~~1.31 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in First Division this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 39 v 49~~9 v 6

~~The market · Cobh Ramblers win~~52% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cobh Ramblers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Treaty United win	36%	23%	+13
Draw	25%	25%	0
Cobh Ramblers win	39%	52%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%	−5
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	77%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Treaty United or draw	61%	48%	+13
Treaty United clean sheet	26%	–	–
Cobh Ramblers clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.6 9.8 6.4 3.0 1 9.5 11.7 8.2 3.8 2 6.0 7.9 5.4 2.5 3 2.6 3.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Treaty United down, Cobh Ramblers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,018 First Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Treaty United at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cobh Ramblers away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Treaty United, 1.37 for Cobh Ramblers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COB 2–0 TRE · TRE 1–2 COB · COB 4–0 TRE · COB 1–0 TRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Division this season · since 4 Sept

TREATY UNITED

LWLWLW0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 2–1

COBH RAMBLERS

DWLDWL1–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 4–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cork City	35	+39	74
2	Bray Wanderers	35	+16	54
3	UCD	35	+13	53
4	Kerry	35	+4	51
5	Longford Town	35	+2	49
6	Cobh Ramblers	35	−6	49
7	Athlone Town	35	0	48
8	Wexford	35	−11	42
9	Treaty United	35	−18	39
10	Finn Harps	35	−39	25