Longford Town v UCD prediction · First Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:08

Longford Town 0–2 UCD UCD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said UCD win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.555

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.528

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UCD win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: UCD 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 37–23–40
1′KICK-OFF Longford Town v UCD
27′We said UCD at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 0–1 · 13–21–66
27′A goal for UCD on 27′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–21–66
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Longford Town 0–1 UCD
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' UCD win: 40% at kick-off, 66% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 13–21–66
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Longford Town
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Longford Town
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' UCD
45′HALF-TIME Longford Town 0–1 UCD
46′SECOND HALF Longford Town 0–1 UCD
47′We said UCD at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' UCD win: 40% at kick-off, 70% now
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Longford Town
63′We said UCD at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
71′We said UCD at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' UCD win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' UCD · On: S. Norval · Off: C. Akinrintayo
77′We said UCD at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Longford Town 0–2 UCD
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' UCD win: 40% at kick-off, 98% now
79′77′: H. Smith on the scoresheet for UCD, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Longford Town · On: A. Paraschiv · Off: P. Manuel
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Longford Town · On: D. George · Off: A. Doran
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Longford Town · On: S. Ugbesia · Off: J. Bailey
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' UCD · On: S. Mohan · Off: M. McCullagh
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' UCD · On: T. Morley · Off: J. Goad
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' UCD win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
85′We said UCD at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Longford Town · On: D. McKenna · Off: A. O'Brien
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Longford Town · On: M. Harris · Off: S. Moore
90′0–2 at the end. Our 40% on UCD comes in. 0–2 · 0–0–100
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' UCD
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' UCD · On: E. Sheeran · Off: S. Murphy
FTFULL TIME Longford Town 0–2 UCD
FTLongford Town 0–2 UCD · UCD win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with UCD just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Longford Town 37%, draw 23%, UCD 40%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Longford Town v UCDBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Longford Town win37%

Draw23%

UCD win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:30

RoundSemi-finals

VenueBishopsgate

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Longford Town

UCD

8Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · First Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	UCD	36	+16	56
5	Longford Town	36	+3	52

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ucd winFirst published 19 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make UCD a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Longford Town v UCD~~1.49 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in First Division this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 52 v 56~~5 v 2

~~The market · UCD win~~41% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · UCD win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Longford Town win	37%	31%	+6
Draw	23%	28%	−5
UCD win	40%	41%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	58%	55%	+3
Both teams to score	60%	59%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	36%	35%	+1
Longford Town or draw	60%	59%	+1
Longford Town clean sheet	22%	–	–
UCD clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.7 7.9 5.8 3.0 1 7.7 10.5 8.3 4.3 2 5.4 8.0 6.1 3.2 3 2.7 4.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Longford Town down, UCD across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,023 First Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.9% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Longford Town at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). UCD away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Longford Town, 1.55 for UCD. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UCD 1–1 LON · LON 2–1 UCD · UCD 2–0 LON · LON 0–0 UCD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Division this season · since 11 Sept

LONGFORD TOWN

LWWDDW0–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–0

UCD

DLLWDW2–2 · 1–5 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 5–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cork City	36	+39	75
2	UCD	36	+16	56
3	Bray Wanderers	36	+14	54
4	Kerry FC	36	+4	52
5	Longford Town	36	+3	52
6	Cobh Ramblers	36	−8	49
7	Athlone Town	36	−1	48
8	Wexford	36	−14	42
9	Treaty United	36	−16	42
10	Finn Harps	36	−37	28