Longford Town v Athlone Town prediction · First Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30

Longford Town 1–0 Athlone Town LONGFORD TOWN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Longford Town win~~47%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.419

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.620

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Longford Town win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Longford Town 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
1′KICK-OFF Longford Town v Athlone Town
33′A goal for Longford Town on 33′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–18–8
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Longford Town 1–0 Athlone Town
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Longford Town win: 47% at kick-off, 74% now
34′We said Longford Town at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–18–8
34′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
39′We said Longford Town at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′HALF-TIME Longford Town 1–0 Athlone Town
45′SECOND HALF Longford Town 1–0 Athlone Town
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Longford Town win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Athlone Town
61′We said Longford Town at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Longford Town · On: P. Manuel · Off: S. Ugbesia
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Athlone Town
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Longford Town
73′We said Longford Town at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Longford Town win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Athlone Town · On: K. O'Connor · Off: J. Crawford
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Athlone Town · On: R. Lyons · Off: P. Grogan
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Athlone Town · On: T. Considine · Off: D. Connolly
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Longford Town · On: A. Paraschiv · Off: J. Bailey
80′We said Longford Town at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Longford Town
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Athlone Town · On: Z. Lawless · Off: P. Ferry
87′We said Longford Town at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′1–0 at the end. Our 47% on Longford Town comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Longford Town win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Longford Town · On: J. Egan · Off: A. Doran
FTFULL TIME Longford Town 1–0 Athlone Town
FTLongford Town 1–0 Athlone Town · Longford Town win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Longford Town are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Longford Town 47%, draw 24%, Athlone Town 29%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Longford Town v Athlone TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Longford Town win47%

Draw24%

Athlone Town win29%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 36

VenueBishopsgate

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Longford Town

Athlone Town

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · First Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Longford Town	35	+2	49
7	Athlone Town	35	0	48

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · longford town winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

47% The market36%

Us47%

~~Market~~36%

We make Longford Town a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Longford Town v Athlone Town~~1.56 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in First Division this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 49 v 48~~5 v 7

~~The market · Longford Town win~~36% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Longford Town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 31% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Longford Town win	47%	36%	+11
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Athlone Town win	29%	38%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	50%	57%	−7
Both teams to score	53%	61%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	29%	36%	−7
Longford Town or draw	71%	62%	+9
Longford Town clean sheet	32%	–	–
Athlone Town clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.5 8.2 4.4 1 10.9 11.4 6.7 2.6 2 8.1 9.1 5.2 2.0 3 4.2 4.7 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Longford Town down, Athlone Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,018 First Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Longford Town at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Athlone Town away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Longford Town, 1.15 for Athlone Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATH 2–1 LON · LON 1–1 ATH · ATH 2–0 LON · ATH 1–2 LON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Division this season · since 4 Sept

LONGFORD TOWN

LLWWDD0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 1–1

ATHLONE TOWN

WDWDWL1–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cork City	35	+39	74
2	Bray Wanderers	35	+16	54
3	UCD	35	+13	53
4	Kerry	35	+4	51
5	Longford Town	35	+2	49
6	Cobh Ramblers	35	−6	49
7	Athlone Town	35	0	48
8	Wexford	35	−11	42
9	Treaty United	35	−18	39
10	Finn Harps	35	−39	25