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Model 1.1

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Kerry v Cork City

Kerry
1–1Full time
Cork City

First Division · FRI 16 OCT · Mounthawk Park

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30
Kerry 1–1 Cork City CORK CITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Cork City win54%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.936
The market’s Brier score0.813

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Cork City win at 54%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Cork City was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 22–24–54
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Kerry v Cork City
  4. 22′We published Cork City at 54%. Our model now makes it 78%. 0–1 · 6–15–78
  5. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Kerry 0–1 Cork City
  6. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Cork City win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
  7. 23′Cork City find the net on 23′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–15–78
  8. 27′Cork City ahead on 24′ through R. Keating. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–16–78
  9. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Kerry 1–1 Cork City
  10. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Cork City win: 54% at kick-off, 47% now
  11. 29′A goal for Kerry on 29′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 22–31–47
  12. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Cork City win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
  13. 43′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 20–37–42
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Kerry 1–1 Cork City
  15. 45′SECOND HALF Kerry 1–1 Cork City
  16. 50′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 20–41–39
  17. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Cork City win 38%)
  18. 54′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 19–44–37
  19. 59′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 18–48–34
  20. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Cork City win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
  21. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Kerry
  22. 67′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 15–56–29
  23. 72′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 13–62–24
  24. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Cork City win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
  25. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Kerry · On: R. Keane · Off: C. Brosnan
  26. 77′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 11–70–19
  27. 81′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 8–78–14
  28. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Cork City win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
  29. 85′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 5–85–9
  30. 90′Full time, 1–1. We called Cork City at 54% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  31. 91′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
  32. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Cork City win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
  33. FTFULL TIME Kerry 1–1 Cork City
  34. FTKerry 1–1 Cork City · Cork City win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cork City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kerry 23%, draw 23%, Cork City 54%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Kerry v Cork CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Kerry win23%
Draw23%
Cork City win54%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 36

VenueMounthawk Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kerry

Cork City

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · First Division

Last match: 9 Oct · First Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Cork City35+3974
4Kerry35+451

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cork city winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
54% The market36%
Us54%
Market36%

We make Cork City a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kerry v Cork City1.00 – 1.70
Form · last six in First Division this season · since 4 SeptW4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 51 v 744 v 1
The market · Cork City win36% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50%55%60% 10 OCT 03:5616 OCT 19:09
Our probability · Cork City win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kerry win23%37%−14
Draw23%26%−3
Cork City win54%36%+18
Over 2.5 goals50%57%−7
Both teams to score50%60%−10
Over 1.5 goals74%79%−5
Over 3.5 goals29%38%−9
Kerry or draw46%64%−18
Kerry clean sheet19%––
Cork City clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.9%
0123450 6.6 11.9 9.7 5.5 2.4 1 7.2 10.8 9.4 5.3 2.3 2 3.4 5.6 4.7 2.7 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kerry down, Cork City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.53 of 7
Both scored3 of 7
Last meetingsCOR 3–1 KER · KER 1–0 COR · COR 4–2 KER · KER 1–4 COR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Division this season · since 4 Sept

KERRY

WLLWWW1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

CORK CITY

DLWLLW1–1 · 2–3 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Cork City35+3974
2Bray Wanderers35+1654
3UCD35+1353
4Kerry35+451
5Longford Town35+249
6Cobh Ramblers35−649
7Athlone Town35048
8Wexford35−1142
9Treaty United35−1839
10Finn Harps35−3925

The competition's standings before kick-off.