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Kerry v Cork City
Kerry
Cork CityFirst Division · FRI 16 OCT · Mounthawk Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Cork City win at 54%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Cork City was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 22–24–54
- 1′KICK-OFF Kerry v Cork City
- 22′We published Cork City at 54%. Our model now makes it 78%. 0–1 · 6–15–78
- 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Kerry 0–1 Cork City
- 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Cork City win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
- 23′Cork City find the net on 23′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–15–78
- 27′Cork City ahead on 24′ through R. Keating. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–16–78
- 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Kerry 1–1 Cork City
- 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Cork City win: 54% at kick-off, 47% now
- 29′A goal for Kerry on 29′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 22–31–47
- 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Cork City win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
- 43′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 20–37–42
- 45′HALF-TIME Kerry 1–1 Cork City
- 45′SECOND HALF Kerry 1–1 Cork City
- 50′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 20–41–39
- 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Cork City win 38%)
- 54′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 19–44–37
- 59′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 18–48–34
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Cork City win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
- 66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Kerry
- 67′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 15–56–29
- 72′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 13–62–24
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Cork City win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Kerry · On: R. Keane · Off: C. Brosnan
- 77′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 11–70–19
- 81′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 8–78–14
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Cork City win: 54% at kick-off, 14% now
- 85′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 5–85–9
- 90′Full time, 1–1. We called Cork City at 54% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
- 91′We said Cork City at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
- 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Cork City win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
- FTFULL TIME Kerry 1–1 Cork City
- FTKerry 1–1 Cork City · Cork City win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassCork City are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Kerry 23%, draw 23%, Cork City 54%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 50%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
Kerry win23%
Cork City win54%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45
RoundMatchday 36
VenueMounthawk Park
Match timeline
All events
KerryMIN
Cork CityEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Kerry
Cork City
Last match: 9 Oct · First Division
Last match: 9 Oct · First Division
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Cork City a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 36% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry win | 23% | 37% | −14 |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | −3 |
| Cork City win | 54% | 36% | +18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 57% | −7 |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 60% | −10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 79% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 38% | −9 |
| Kerry or draw | 46% | 64% | −18 |
| Kerry clean sheet | 19% | – | – |
| Cork City clean sheet | 37% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2023Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in First Division this season · since 4 Sept
KERRY
CORK CITY
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 35 | +39 | 74 |
| 2 | Bray Wanderers | 35 | +16 | 54 |
| 3 | UCD | 35 | +13 | 53 |
| 4 | Kerry | 35 | +4 | 51 |
| 5 | Longford Town | 35 | +2 | 49 |
| 6 | Cobh Ramblers | 35 | −6 | 49 |
| 7 | Athlone Town | 35 | 0 | 48 |
| 8 | Wexford | 35 | −11 | 42 |
| 9 | Treaty United | 35 | −18 | 39 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 35 | −39 | 25 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Bray Wanderers
UCD
Longford Town
Cobh Ramblers
Athlone Town
Wexford
Treaty United
Finn Harps