Kerry FC v Bray Wanderers prediction · First Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:33

Kerry FC 1–2 Bray Wanderers KERRY FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kerry FC win~~44%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.701

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.580

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kerry FC win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Kerry FC v Bray Wanderers
2′Much as we predicted: Kerry FC was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–33
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Kerry FC
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Kerry FC
45′HALF-TIME Kerry FC 0–0 Bray Wanderers
46′SECOND HALF Kerry FC 0–0 Bray Wanderers
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Kerry FC win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Kerry FC win 36%)
53′We said Kerry FC at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Kerry FC 0–1 Bray Wanderers
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Kerry FC win: 44% at kick-off, 9% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Bray Wanderers win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 41%)
55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–37–28 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
55′Bray Wanderers score on 54′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–23–68
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Bray Wanderers · On: J. Ryan · Off: J. B. Sesay
65′We said Kerry FC at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
65′Bray Wanderers find the net on 65′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–95
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Kerry FC 0–2 Bray Wanderers
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Kerry FC win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kerry FC · On: R. Keane · Off: D. Okwute
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' R. Keane · Kerry FC
66′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–95
68′A goal for Kerry FC on 68′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–75
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Bray Wanderers
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Kerry FC 1–2 Bray Wanderers
69′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–20–76
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Bray Wanderers · On: R. Kelly · Off: E. Mustali
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Bray Wanderers · On: N. Azede · Off: A. Oluwabiyi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Kerry FC · On: A. Healy · Off: S. McGrath
90′Full time, 1–2. We called Kerry FC at 44% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–2 · 0–0–100
91′🟥 RED CARD · 90+1' Kerry FC
92′Red cards for both sides: Kerry FC down to ten, Bray Wanderers to ten. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–2 · 0–3–97
92′🟥 RED CARD · 90+1' Bray Wanderers
FTFULL TIME Kerry FC 1–2 Bray Wanderers
FTKerry FC 1–2 Bray Wanderers · Kerry FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kerry FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kerry FC 44%, draw 23%, Bray Wanderers 33%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Kerry FC v Bray WanderersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Kerry FC win44%

Draw23%

Bray Wanderers win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:45

RoundSemi-finals

VenueMounthawk Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kerry FC

Bray Wanderers

8Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · First Division

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bray Wanderers	36	+14	54
4	Kerry FC	36	+4	52

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kerry fc winFirst published 19 Oct 09:31 · updated 20 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market35%

Us44%

~~Market~~35%

We make Kerry FC a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kerry FC v Bray Wanderers~~1.59 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in First Division this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 52 v 54~~4 v 3

~~The market · Kerry FC win~~35% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kerry FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kerry FC win	44%	35%	+9
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Bray Wanderers win	33%	38%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	56%	53%	+3
Both teams to score	58%	57%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	33%	+1
Kerry FC or draw	67%	62%	+5
Kerry FC clean sheet	27%	–	–
Bray Wanderers clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.2 7.6 4.8 2.2 1 9.0 10.8 7.4 3.3 2 6.8 8.8 5.8 2.6 3 3.6 4.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kerry FC down, Bray Wanderers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,023 First Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.9% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kerry FC at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bray Wanderers away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Kerry FC, 1.34 for Bray Wanderers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KER 0–1 BRA · BRA 0–4 KER · KER 2–2 BRA · BRA 2–1 KER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Division this season · since 11 Sept

KERRY FC

LLWWWD0–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

BRAY WANDERERS

WWWLDL1–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cork City	36	+39	75
2	UCD	36	+16	56
3	Bray Wanderers	36	+14	54
4	Kerry FC	36	+4	52
5	Longford Town	36	+3	52
6	Cobh Ramblers	36	−8	49
7	Athlone Town	36	−1	48
8	Wexford	36	−14	42
9	Treaty United	36	−16	42
10	Finn Harps	36	−37	28