Finn Harps v Bray Wanderers prediction · First Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30

Finn Harps 2–0 Bray Wanderers BRAY WANDERERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bray Wanderers win~~56%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.937

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.168

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bray Wanderers win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bray Wanderers 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 23–21–56
1′KICK-OFF Finn Harps v Bray Wanderers
5′A goal for Finn Harps on 5′. 0–0 · 23–22–56
6′We said Bray Wanderers at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 1–0 · 45–23–33
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Finn Harps 1–0 Bray Wanderers · A. McLaughlin
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Bray Wanderers win: 56% at kick-off, 33% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Finn Harps win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Bray Wanderers win 33%)
17′We said Bray Wanderers at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 47–24–29
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Bray Wanderers win: 56% at kick-off, 26% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 50–25–25
31′We said Bray Wanderers at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 50–26–24
43′We said Bray Wanderers at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 54–27–19
45′HALF-TIME Finn Harps 1–0 Bray Wanderers
45′SECOND HALF Finn Harps 1–0 Bray Wanderers
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Bray Wanderers win: 56% at kick-off, 16% now
54′We said Bray Wanderers at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 59–27–14
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Finn Harps · On: O. Brogan · Off: A. McLaughlin
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Bray Wanderers · On: P. Akinyem · Off: E. Cheese
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Bray Wanderers · On: Z. Reddy · Off: J. B. Sesay
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Finn Harps · On: Benny · Off: A. McDaid
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Finn Harps
64′We said Bray Wanderers at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 65–26–9
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Bray Wanderers win: 56% at kick-off, 6% now
73′Finn Harps find the net on 72′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
73′We said Bray Wanderers at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Finn Harps 2–0 Bray Wanderers
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Finn Harps · On: J. O'Donnell · Off: L. Doherty
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Finn Harps · On: C. McGranaghan · Off: C. Harkin
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Bray Wanderers · On: R. Flynn · Off: J. Ryan
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Bray Wanderers · On: F. O'Snodaigh · Off: R. Kelly
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Bray Wanderers · On: J. Lawless · Off: J. Duggan
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Finn Harps · On: M. Hutchison · Off: T. McNamee
FTFULL TIME Finn Harps 2–0 Bray Wanderers
FTFinn Harps 2–0 Bray Wanderers · Bray Wanderers win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bray Wanderers are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Finn Harps 24%, draw 20%, Bray Wanderers 56%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Finn Harps v Bray WanderersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Finn Harps win24%

Draw20%

Bray Wanderers win56%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 36

VenueFinn Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Finn Harps

Bray Wanderers

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · First Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bray Wanderers	35	+16	54
10	Finn Harps	35	−39	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bray wanderers winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

56% The market65%

Us56%

~~Market~~65%

We make Bray Wanderers a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Finn Harps v Bray Wanderers~~1.28 – 2.11

~~Form · last six in First Division this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 25 v 54~~10 v 2

~~The market · Bray Wanderers win~~65% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bray Wanderers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 66% to 65% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Finn Harps win	24%	16%	+8
Draw	20%	20%	0
Bray Wanderers win	56%	65%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	65%	65%	0
Both teams to score	62%	58%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	44%	45%	−1
Finn Harps or draw	44%	35%	+9
Finn Harps clean sheet	13%	–	–
Bray Wanderers clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.2%

0123450 3.3 7.6 7.4 5.2 2.8 1 4.9 8.7 9.2 6.4 3.5 2 3.0 5.8 5.9 4.1 2.2 3 2.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Finn Harps down, Bray Wanderers across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,018 First Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 175 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.90 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Finn Harps at home: 0.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bray Wanderers away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Finn Harps, 2.11 for Bray Wanderers. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.90

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BRA 5–0 FIN · FIN 0–1 BRA · FIN 2–1 BRA · BRA 2–2 FIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Division this season · since 4 Sept

FINN HARPS

LWLLLL0–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

BRAY WANDERERS

DWWWLD1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 1–4 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cork City	35	+39	74
2	Bray Wanderers	35	+16	54
3	UCD	35	+13	53
4	Kerry	35	+4	51
5	Longford Town	35	+2	49
6	Cobh Ramblers	35	−6	49
7	Athlone Town	35	0	48
8	Wexford	35	−11	42
9	Treaty United	35	−18	39
10	Finn Harps	35	−39	25