Home › Football › First Division › Cork City v Finn Harps

Cork City v Finn Harps

Cork City

2–0Full time

Finn Harps

First Division · FRI 9 OCT · Turners Cross

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Cork City 2–0 Finn Harps CORK CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Cork City win~~80%

~~The market said~~82%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.063

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.051

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cork City win at 80%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cork City 80% before kick-off, 80% now. 0–0 · 80–13–7
1′KICK-OFF Cork City v Finn Harps
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Cork City 1–0 Finn Harps
23′⚽ GOAL · 24' Cork City 1–0 Finn Harps
25′Cork City find the net on 24′. 1–0. 1–0 · 91–7–2
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Cork City win: 80% at kick-off, 91% now
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Finn Harps
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Finn Harps
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Cork City 2–0 Finn Harps · S. Maguire
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Cork City 2–0 Finn Harps
45′SECOND HALF Cork City 2–0 Finn Harps
46′HALF-TIME Cork City 2–0 Finn Harps
52′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Cork City
62′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Finn Harps · On: A. McDaid · Off: C. Harkin
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Cork City · On: J. Fitzpatrick · Off: C. Murphy
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Cork City · R. Feely · Cork City
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Cork City · On: N. O'Keeffe · Off: G. Bolger
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Finn Harps · On: B. Bosakani · Off: G. McAteer
83′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Finn Harps · On: J. McAteer · Off: R. Ferns
86′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Finn Harps
FTFULL TIME Cork City 2–0 Finn Harps
FTCork City 2–0 Finn Harps · Cork City win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cork City win80%

Draw13%

Finn Harps win8%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Turners Cross

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Cork City

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Brann

28 R. Feely

4 F. Kelleher

5 C. Lyons

15 C. Drinan

10 H. Mpongo

17 D. Crowley

6 G. Bolger

39 C. Murphy

24 S. Maguire

9 R. Keating

Coach · –

Substitutes

40 · S. Hallihan

2 · H. Nevin

8 · J. Aidoo

14 · N. O'Keeffe

20 · J. Fitzpatrick

23 · C. N’sa

25 · M. Murray

31 · I. Manjor-Georgewill

Finn Harps

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Sheridan

2 J. Cullen

6 J. Bradley-Walsh

5 O. Brogan

3 R. Ferns

7 Benny

23 F. Mckenlay

18 C. Harkin

11 G. McAteer

8 M. Hutchison

10 T. McNamee

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · B. Bosakani

17 · C. McGranaghan

20 · G. Priosti

24 · A. McDaid

34 · J. McAteer

35 · T. Preston

41 · L. Doherty

25 · Lorenzo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cork City

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Brann

28 R. Feely

4 F. Kelleher

5 C. Lyons

15 C. Drinan

10 H. Mpongo

17 D. Crowley

6 G. Bolger

39 C. Murphy

24 S. Maguire

9 R. Keating

Coach · –

Substitutes

40 · S. Hallihan

2 · H. Nevin

8 · J. Aidoo

14 · N. O'Keeffe

20 · J. Fitzpatrick

23 · C. N’sa

25 · M. Murray

31 · I. Manjor-Georgewill

Finn Harps

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Sheridan

2 J. Cullen

6 J. Bradley-Walsh

5 O. Brogan

3 R. Ferns

7 Benny

23 F. Mckenlay

18 C. Harkin

11 G. McAteer

8 M. Hutchison

10 T. McNamee

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · B. Bosakani

17 · C. McGranaghan

20 · G. Priosti

24 · A. McDaid

34 · J. McAteer

35 · T. Preston

41 · L. Doherty

25 · Lorenzo

Our number · cork city winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

80% The market82%

Us80%

~~Market~~82%

We make Cork City a 80% chance to win. The market has them at 82%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.8–0.7.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cork City win	80%	82%	−2
Draw	13%	11%	+1
Finn Harps win	8%	7%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	68%	75%	−7
Both teams to score	48%	52%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	86%	89%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	47%	57%	−10
Cork City or draw	92%	93%	−1
Cork City clean sheet	48%	–	–
Finn Harps clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.2%

0123450 2.8 2.6 1 8.5 5.8 2.3 2 11.2 8.2 3.1 3 10.3 7.5 2.8 4 7.3 5.3 5 4.2 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Cork City down, Finn Harps across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,013 First Division matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 170 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.29 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cork City at home: 3.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Finn Harps away: 1.50 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.82 goals for Cork City, 0.74 for Finn Harps. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.29

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~FIN 0–3 COR · COR 4–0 FIN · FIN 0–0 COR · COR 2–2 FIN

Form · last six in First Division

CORK CITY

WDLWLL2–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

FINN HARPS

LLWLLL4–5 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cork City	34	+37	71
2	Bray Wanderers	34	+16	53
3	UCD	34	+13	52
4	Cobh Ramblers	34	−4	49
5	Longford Town	34	+2	48
6	Kerry	34	+2	48
7	Athlone Town	34	+1	48
8	Wexford	34	−11	41
9	Treaty United	34	−19	36
10	Finn Harps	34	−37	25