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Cobh Ramblers v Kerry

Cobh Ramblers

0–2Full time

Kerry

First Division · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Cobh Ramblers 0–2 Kerry COBH RAMBLERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cobh Ramblers win~~52%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.884

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.698

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cobh Ramblers win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Cobh Ramblers was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–24
1′KICK-OFF Cobh Ramblers v Kerry
20′⚽ GOAL · 21' Cobh Ramblers 0–0 Kerry
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Cobh Ramblers 0–1 Kerry
23′21′ and it is 0–1: Kerry have scored. 0–1 · 21–26–53
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Cobh Ramblers win: 52% at kick-off, 21% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Kerry win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Cobh Ramblers win 21%)
32′⚽ GOAL · 34' Cobh Ramblers 0–1 Kerry
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Cobh Ramblers 0–2 Kerry · C. Bargary
41′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Cobh Ramblers
45′HALF-TIME Cobh Ramblers 0–2 Kerry
45′SECOND HALF Cobh Ramblers 0–2 Kerry
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Kerry
50′🟨 YELLOW · 46' N. Brookwell · Kerry
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Cobh Ramblers · On: C. Honohan · Off: B. Frahill
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Cobh Ramblers · On: J. Stjernberg · Off: O. Crowe
89′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Kerry · On: R. Perez · Off: C. Brosnan Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Cobh Ramblers · On: A. Adenopo · Off: B. Linehan
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Kerry · On: C. Healy · Off: S. McGrath
FTFULL TIME Cobh Ramblers 0–2 Kerry
FTCobh Ramblers 0–2 Kerry · Cobh Ramblers win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cobh Ramblers win52%

Draw23%

Kerry win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Cobh Ramblers

Formation not confirmed

42 T. Martin

4 C. Coleman

45 R. Mansfield

38 L. Le Bervet

3 B. Linehan

8 R. Gourdie

16 O. Crowe

5 B. Frahill

10 D. McGlade

14 J. Adeyemi

23 S. Griffin

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · R. Moloney

2 · C. Honohan

9 · K. O’Neill

11 · A. Adenopo

17 · R. Kelly-Noonan

18 · D. McCormick

19 · J. Stjernberg

22 · M. Carroll

Kerry

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Connor

18 S. Aladesanusi

17 C. Brosnan

41 C. Bargary

10 C. Murphy

29 E. Lee

24 V. Borden

14 J. Hakkinen

7 S. McGrath

28 N. Brookwell

3 S. O'Connell

Coach · –

Substitutes

44 · H. Halwax

11 · D. Okwute

21 · L. Palmer

23 · R. Perez

34 · R. Keane

35 · C. Healy

37 · C. McCormack

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cobh Ramblers

Formation not confirmed

42 T. Martin

4 C. Coleman

45 R. Mansfield

38 L. Le Bervet

3 B. Linehan

8 R. Gourdie

16 O. Crowe

5 B. Frahill

10 D. McGlade

14 J. Adeyemi

23 S. Griffin

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · R. Moloney

2 · C. Honohan

9 · K. O’Neill

11 · A. Adenopo

17 · R. Kelly-Noonan

18 · D. McCormick

19 · J. Stjernberg

22 · M. Carroll

Kerry

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Connor

18 S. Aladesanusi

17 C. Brosnan

41 C. Bargary

10 C. Murphy

29 E. Lee

24 V. Borden

14 J. Hakkinen

7 S. McGrath

28 N. Brookwell

3 S. O'Connell

Coach · –

Substitutes

44 · H. Halwax

11 · D. Okwute

21 · L. Palmer

23 · R. Perez

34 · R. Keane

35 · C. Healy

37 · C. McCormack

Our number · cobh ramblers winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

52% The market38%

Us52%

~~Market~~38%

We make Cobh Ramblers a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cobh ramblers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cobh Ramblers win	52%	38%	+13
Draw	23%	30%	−6
Kerry win	25%	32%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	52%	45%	+8
Both teams to score	53%	51%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	69%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	30%	26%	+5
Cobh Ramblers or draw	75%	68%	+7
Cobh Ramblers clean sheet	34%	–	–
Kerry clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.0%

0123450 6.0 7.3 3.7 1 11.0 10.8 6.1 2.3 2 8.9 9.4 5.1 3 5.0 5.3 2.9 4 2.2 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cobh Ramblers down, Kerry across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,013 First Division matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 170 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 2.27 goals a meeting; 5 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cobh Ramblers at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Kerry away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Cobh Ramblers, 1.09 for Kerry. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.27

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 15

~~Both scored~~7 of 15

~~Last meetings~~KER 3–0 COB · COB 2–0 KER · KER 1–2 COB · KER 1–1 COB

Form · last six in First Division

COBH RAMBLERS

DDWLDW2–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 3–3 · 4–1

KERRY

WWLLWW3–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cork City	34	+37	71
2	Bray Wanderers	34	+16	53
3	UCD	34	+13	52
4	Cobh Ramblers	34	−4	49
5	Longford Town	34	+2	48
6	Kerry	34	+2	48
7	Athlone Town	34	+1	48
8	Wexford	34	−11	41
9	Treaty United	34	−19	36
10	Finn Harps	34	−37	25