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Bray Wanderers v Wexford

Bray Wanderers

2–2Full time

Wexford

First Division · FRI 9 OCT · Carlisle Grounds

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Bray Wanderers 2–2 Wexford BRAY WANDERERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bray Wanderers win~~58%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.025

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.001

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bray Wanderers win at 58%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bray Wanderers 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–21–21
1′KICK-OFF Bray Wanderers v Wexford
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Bray Wanderers 0–1 Wexford
4′J. Doyle scores for Wexford on 2′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 34–23–43
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Bray Wanderers win: 58% at kick-off, 34% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Wexford win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Bray Wanderers win 34%)
9′We said Bray Wanderers at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–24–44
19′We said Bray Wanderers at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–25–46
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Bray Wanderers win: 58% at kick-off, 27% now
32′PENALTY MISSED · 33' Wexford
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Bray Wanderers 0–2 Wexford · J. Doyle
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Bray Wanderers 0–2 Wexford
45′HALF-TIME Bray Wanderers 0–2 Wexford
45′SECOND HALF Bray Wanderers 0–2 Wexford
54′⚽ GOAL · 55' Bray Wanderers 0–2 Wexford
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Bray Wanderers 1–2 Wexford · J. Doyle
58′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Bray Wanderers
63′⚽ GOAL · 55' Bray Wanderers 1–2 Wexford · E. Mustali
64′⚽ GOAL · 55' Bray Wanderers 1–2 Wexford · E. Mustali
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Wexford · On: A. Mazur · Off: L. Doyle Corrected
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Wexford
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Wexford
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Wexford
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Bray Wanderers 2–2 Wexford · E. Mustali
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Bray Wanderers 2–2 Wexford
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Wexford
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Wexford
92′🟥 RED CARD · 92' Wexford
92′🟥 RED CARD · 93' Wexford
94′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Bray Wanderers
94′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Wexford
FTFULL TIME Bray Wanderers 2–2 Wexford
FTBray Wanderers 2–2 Wexford · Bray Wanderers win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bray Wanderers win58%

Draw20%

Wexford win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Carlisle Grounds

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Bray Wanderers

Formation not confirmed

13 R. Hogan

2 A. Kizenga

12 D. Osagie

27 D. O'Shea

33 B. Shelley

10 R. Ferizaj

15 R. Kelly

30 E. Cheese

18 B. McCormack

11 I. Achara

21 E. Mustali

Coach · Paul Heffernan

Substitutes

25 · S. McGuinnes

5 · S. Havales

7 · C. Knight

4 · J. Duggan

20 · T. Sammy

6 · J. B. Sesay

14 · N. Azede

3 · B. Fagbemi

19 · Z. Reddy

Wexford

Formation not confirmed

20 P. Martin

2 M. Murphy

5 R. McCourt

26 K. Dignam

6 R. Bartley

8 Z. Abada

15 R. Ritchie

25 R. Butler

7 M. Rowe

14 L. Doyle

33 J. Doyle

Coach · Stephen Elliott

Substitutes

1 · A. Moody

4 · A. Verdon

22 · B. Vance

18 · A. Norval

32 · C. Mullan

9 · Z. O'Sullivan

27 · A. Mazur

37 · K. Byrne

28 · I. Voloshyn

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bray Wanderers

Formation not confirmed

13 R. Hogan

2 A. Kizenga

12 D. Osagie

27 D. O'Shea

33 B. Shelley

10 R. Ferizaj

15 R. Kelly

30 E. Cheese

18 B. McCormack

11 I. Achara

21 E. Mustali

Coach · Paul Heffernan

Substitutes

25 · S. McGuinnes

5 · S. Havales

7 · C. Knight

4 · J. Duggan

20 · T. Sammy

6 · J. B. Sesay

14 · N. Azede

3 · B. Fagbemi

19 · Z. Reddy

Wexford

Formation not confirmed

20 P. Martin

2 M. Murphy

5 R. McCourt

26 K. Dignam

6 R. Bartley

8 Z. Abada

15 R. Ritchie

25 R. Butler

7 M. Rowe

14 L. Doyle

33 J. Doyle

Coach · Stephen Elliott

Substitutes

1 · A. Moody

4 · A. Verdon

22 · B. Vance

18 · A. Norval

32 · C. Mullan

9 · Z. O'Sullivan

27 · A. Mazur

37 · K. Byrne

28 · I. Voloshyn

Our number · bray wanderers winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

58% The market59%

Us58%

~~Market~~59%

We make Bray Wanderers a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bray wanderers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bray Wanderers win	58%	59%	−1
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Wexford win	22%	19%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	64%	65%	−1
Both teams to score	60%	61%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	83%	0
Over 3.5 goals	42%	45%	−3
Bray Wanderers or draw	78%	81%	−3
Bray Wanderers clean sheet	30%	–	–
Wexford clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.5 5.0 2.7 1 8.2 8.9 5.6 2.3 2 8.0 9.5 5.7 2.3 3 5.6 6.6 4.0 4 3.0 3.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bray Wanderers down, Wexford across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,013 First Division matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 170 played.

Head to head

22 previous meetings, 3.05 goals a meeting; 14 of 22 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bray Wanderers at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Wexford away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.10 goals for Bray Wanderers, 1.21 for Wexford. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

22 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.05

~~Over 2.5~~14 of 22

~~Both scored~~14 of 22

~~Last meetings~~WEX 2–1 BRA · BRA 4–0 WEX · WEX 2–1 BRA · WEX 0–1 BRA

Form · last six in First Division

BRAY WANDERERS

LDWWWL1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 1–4

WEXFORD

LWLWLD0–2 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cork City	34	+37	71
2	Bray Wanderers	34	+16	53
3	UCD	34	+13	52
4	Cobh Ramblers	34	−4	49
5	Longford Town	34	+2	48
6	Kerry	34	+2	48
7	Athlone Town	34	+1	48
8	Wexford	34	−11	41
9	Treaty United	34	−19	36
10	Finn Harps	34	−37	25