Bray Wanderers v Kerry FC prediction · First Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Bray WanderersDrawKerry FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Bray Wanderers 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bray Wanderers are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bray Wanderers 47%, draw 23%, Kerry FC 30%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Bray Wanderers v Kerry FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Bray Wanderers win47%

Draw23%

Kerry FC win30%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundSemi-finals

VenueCarlisle Grounds

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bray Wanderers

Kerry FC

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · First Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Bray Wanderers	36	+14	54
4	Kerry FC	36	+4	52

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bray wanderers winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Bray Wanderers a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bray Wanderers v Kerry FC~~1.66 – 1.28

~~Form · last six in First Division this season · since 18 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 54 v 52~~3 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bray Wanderers win

Published at 46%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bray Wanderers win	47%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Kerry FC win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Bray Wanderers or draw	70%	–	–
Bray Wanderers clean sheet	28%	–	–
Kerry FC clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.1 7.2 4.3 1 9.3 10.7 7.0 3.0 2 7.3 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 4.1 5.1 3.2 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bray Wanderers down, Kerry FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,025 First Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 182 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bray Wanderers at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Kerry FC away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Bray Wanderers, 1.28 for Kerry FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~KER 1–2 BRA · KER 0–1 BRA · BRA 0–4 KER · KER 2–2 BRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First Division this season · since 18 Sept

BRAY WANDERERS

WWLDLW2–0 · 3–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1

KERRY FC

LWWWDL0–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cork City	36	+39	75
2	UCD	36	+16	56
3	Bray Wanderers	36	+14	54
4	Kerry FC	36	+4	52
5	Longford Town	36	+3	52
6	Cobh Ramblers	36	−8	49
7	Athlone Town	36	−1	48
8	Wexford	36	−14	42
9	Treaty United	36	−16	42
10	Finn Harps	36	−37	28