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Athlone Town v Treaty United

Athlone Town

1–2Full time

Treaty United

First Division · FRI 9 OCT · Athlone Town Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Athlone Town 1–2 Treaty United ATHLONE TOWN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Athlone Town win~~45%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.771

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.175

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Athlone Town win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Athlone Town was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–28
1′KICK-OFF Athlone Town v Treaty United
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Athlone Town 0–1 Treaty United
20′Treaty United ahead on 16′ through M. Byrne. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–24–59
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Athlone Town win: 45% at kick-off, 17% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Treaty United win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Athlone Town win 17%)
24′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Treaty United
25′We said Athlone Town at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–25–60
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Athlone Town win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
45′HALF-TIME Athlone Town 0–1 Treaty United
45′SECOND HALF Athlone Town 0–1 Treaty United
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Athlone Town 0–2 Treaty United · M. Byrne
74′⚽ GOAL · 75' Athlone Town 0–2 Treaty United
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Athlone Town 0–2 Treaty United
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Athlone Town · On: J. Crawford · Off: G. Lomboto
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Athlone Town · On: T. Considine · Off: D. Connolly
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Athlone Town 1–2 Treaty United · B. Feeney
88′⚽ GOAL · 89' Athlone Town 1–2 Treaty United
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Athlone Town 1–2 Treaty United
FTFULL TIME Athlone Town 1–2 Treaty United
FTAthlone Town 1–2 Treaty United · Athlone Town win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Athlone Town win45%

Draw26%

Treaty United win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Athlone Town Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Athlone Town

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Clarke

3 K. O'Connor

5 E. O'Connor

24 C. Cleary

29 J. Kehir

7 D. Connolly

11 B. McManus

14 G. Lomboto

18 P. Grogan

10 R. Lyons

19 W. Smith

Coach · Sean O'Connor

Substitutes

13 · A. Trainor

9 · P. Ferry

15 · L. Miranda

8 · A. Connolly

16 · Z. Lawless

33 · J. Farnham

23 · T. Considine

36 · A. Ayinde

27 · J. Crawford

Treaty United

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Brady

2 R. Boevi

20 D. Nwankwo

27 R. Lynch

44 K. Cantwell

8 C. Conroy

11 M. Byrne

15 B. Feeney

28 M. Jones

31 R. Manning

36 C. Whelan

Coach · Tommy Barrett

Substitutes

21 · K. Fitzpatrick

5 · B. Regan

6 · S. Healy

10 · R. Lawlor

18 · J. Oyenuga

19 · B. Cunningham

29 · K. Foley

30 · M. Murphy

37 · D. Kareem

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Athlone Town

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Clarke

3 K. O'Connor

5 E. O'Connor

24 C. Cleary

29 J. Kehir

7 D. Connolly

11 B. McManus

14 G. Lomboto

18 P. Grogan

10 R. Lyons

19 W. Smith

Coach · Sean O'Connor

Substitutes

13 · A. Trainor

9 · P. Ferry

15 · L. Miranda

8 · A. Connolly

16 · Z. Lawless

33 · J. Farnham

23 · T. Considine

36 · A. Ayinde

27 · J. Crawford

Treaty United

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Brady

2 R. Boevi

20 D. Nwankwo

27 R. Lynch

44 K. Cantwell

8 C. Conroy

11 M. Byrne

15 B. Feeney

28 M. Jones

31 R. Manning

36 C. Whelan

Coach · Tommy Barrett

Substitutes

21 · K. Fitzpatrick

5 · B. Regan

6 · S. Healy

10 · R. Lawlor

18 · J. Oyenuga

19 · B. Cunningham

29 · K. Foley

30 · M. Murphy

37 · D. Kareem

Our number · athlone town winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

45% The market64%

Us45%

~~Market~~64%

We make Athlone Town a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · athlone town win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Athlone Town win	45%	64%	−19
Draw	26%	21%	+5
Treaty United win	29%	15%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	44%	56%	−12
Both teams to score	48%	51%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	69%	77%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	23%	36%	−13
Athlone Town or draw	71%	85%	−14
Athlone Town clean sheet	35%	–	–
Treaty United clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 8.5 9.8 4.9 1 12.6 12.0 6.6 2.3 2 8.4 8.6 4.5 3 3.9 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Athlone Town down, Treaty United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,013 First Division matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 170 played.

Head to head

22 previous meetings, 2.59 goals a meeting; 10 of 22 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Athlone Town at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Treaty United away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Athlone Town, 1.05 for Treaty United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

22 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.59

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 22

~~Both scored~~11 of 22

~~Last meetings~~TRE 2–1 ATH · ATH 0–0 TRE · TRE 2–0 ATH · TRE 3–2 ATH

Form · last six in First Division

ATHLONE TOWN

WWDWDW2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 2–1

TREATY UNITED

LLWLWL1–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Cork City	34	+37	71
2	Bray Wanderers	34	+16	53
3	UCD	34	+13	52
4	Cobh Ramblers	34	−4	49
5	Longford Town	34	+2	48
6	Kerry	34	+2	48
7	Athlone Town	34	+1	48
8	Wexford	34	−11	41
9	Treaty United	34	−19	36
10	Finn Harps	34	−37	25