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Galway United v Derry City

Galway United

0–2Full time

Derry City

FAI Cup · SAT 10 OCT · Eamonn Deacy Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Galway United 0–2 Derry City DERRY CITY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Derry City win~~38%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.577

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.475

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Derry City win at 38%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Derry City 38% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
3′KICK-OFF Galway United v Derry City
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' C. Barratt · Galway United
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Galway United 0–1 Derry City
29′⚽ GOAL · 27' Galway United 0–1 Derry City · M. Duffy
45′45′ and it is 0–2: Derry City have scored. 0–2 · 1–6–93
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Galway United 0–2 Derry City · M. Duffy
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Derry City win: 38% at kick-off, 93% now
45′SECOND HALF Galway United 0–2 Derry City
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Galway United 0–2 Derry City
46′HALF-TIME Galway United 0–2 Derry City
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Galway United · On: F. Lomboto · Off: K. Twardek
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Galway United · On: E. McCarthy · Off: C. Barratt
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' A. O'Reilly · Derry City
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Galway United · On: F. Pierrot · Off: S. Walsh
79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Galway United · On: M. Wolfe · Off: A. O'Connor
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Derry City · On: J. Olayinka · Off: D. Burns
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Derry City
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Galway United · On: D. Connolly · Off: J. Keohane
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Derry City · On: C. Barr · Off: J. Clarke
95′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Derry City · On: T. Smith · Off: J. Olayinka Corrected
FTFULL TIME Galway United 0–2 Derry City
FTGalway United 0–2 Derry City · Derry City win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Galway United win33%

Draw29%

Derry City win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

James McClean controversy: What's actually going on with the ex-Wrexham star?Football League World · 1 day ago · Wrexham, Derry City

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Eamonn Deacy Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Galway United

Formation not confirmed

16 H. Cunha

15 W. Williams

2 A. O'Connor

12 G. Facchineri

3 C. Barratt

8 A. Bolger

20 L. Devitt

4 J. Keohane

10 D. Hurley

11 K. Twardek

7 S. Walsh

Coach · John Caulfield

Substitutes

99 · V. Angelini

9 · F. Lomboto

14 · M. Wolfe

17 · J. Thiam

21 · D. Connolly

23 · F. Pierrot

28 · J. Morahan

24 · E. McCarthy

54 · C. Whittaker

Derry City

Formation not confirmed

13 T. Norcott

23 C. Dummigan

4 J. Stott

3 P. McClean

19 B. Fleming

17 N. Twisk

12 D. Burns

8 A. O'Reilly

14 E. Chapman

7 M. Duffy

15 J. Clarke

Coach · Mark Connolly

Substitutes

1 · B. Maher

11 · G. Whyte

21 · K. Santos

22 · C. Barr

24 · B. Lyons-Foster

25 · C. Grogan

28 · J. Olayinka

29 · T. Smith

32 · T. Doherty

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Galway United

Formation not confirmed

16 H. Cunha

15 W. Williams

2 A. O'Connor

12 G. Facchineri

3 C. Barratt

8 A. Bolger

20 L. Devitt

4 J. Keohane

10 D. Hurley

11 K. Twardek

7 S. Walsh

Coach · John Caulfield

Substitutes

99 · V. Angelini

9 · F. Lomboto

14 · M. Wolfe

17 · J. Thiam

21 · D. Connolly

23 · F. Pierrot

28 · J. Morahan

24 · E. McCarthy

54 · C. Whittaker

Derry City

Formation not confirmed

13 T. Norcott

23 C. Dummigan

4 J. Stott

3 P. McClean

19 B. Fleming

17 N. Twisk

12 D. Burns

8 A. O'Reilly

14 E. Chapman

7 M. Duffy

15 J. Clarke

Coach · Mark Connolly

Substitutes

1 · B. Maher

11 · G. Whyte

21 · K. Santos

22 · C. Barr

24 · B. Lyons-Foster

25 · C. Grogan

28 · J. Olayinka

29 · T. Smith

32 · T. Doherty

Our number · derry city winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

38% The market44%

Us38%

~~Market~~44%

We make Derry City a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · derry city win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Galway United win	33%	29%	+4
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Derry City win	38%	44%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	43%	50%	−7
Both teams to score	49%	54%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	73%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	22%	30%	−8
Galway United or draw	62%	56%	+6
Galway United clean sheet	29%	–	–
Derry City clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.2 10.6 7.2 3.0 1 9.5 13.8 8.0 3.4 2 5.9 7.3 4.6 3 2.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Galway United down, Derry City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,067 Premier Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 162 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.08 goals a meeting; 4 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Galway United at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Derry City away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Galway United, 1.25 for Derry City. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.08

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 12

~~Both scored~~7 of 12

~~Last meetings~~DER 1–0 GAL · GAL 2–1 DER · DER 1–1 GAL · GAL 2–1 DER

Form · last six in FAI Cup

GALWAY UNITED

WDLWLD2–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

DERRY CITY

WLDWDW2–0 · 3–5 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Waterford	4	+7	12
2	Derry City	3	+6	9
3	Galway United	3	+5	7
4	Dundalk	3	+8	6
5	Drogheda United	3	+6	6
6	Sligo Rovers	3	+5	6
7	College Corinthians	3	−1	6
8	Castlebar Celtic	3	−4	6
9	St Patrick's Athl.	3	+1	5
10	Bohemians	3	+2	4
11	Bray Wanderers	2	+1	4
12	Longford Town	2	+4	3
13	Bangor Celtic	2	+2	3
14	Athlone Town	2	+2	3
15	Crumlin United	2	0	3
16	Tolka Rovers	2	0	3
17	UCD	2	0	3
18	Douglas Hall	2	0	3
19	St Mochta's	2	−1	3
20	Midleton	2	−1	3
21	Baldoyle United	2	−6	3
22	Shamrock Rovers	2	0	2
23	Shelbourne	1	0	1
24	UCC	1	0	1
25	Cork City	1	0	1
26	Liffeys Wanderers	1	0	1
27	Ringmahon Rangers	1	0	1
28	St. Michaels	1	0	1
29	Kerry	2	−4	1
30	Lucan United	2	−4	1
31	Janesboro	2	−4	1
32	Wayside Celtic	1	−1	0
33	Cobh Ramblers	1	−1	0
34	Killester Donnycarney	1	−1	0
35	Treaty United	1	−1	0
36	Wexford	1	−1	0
37	Fanad United	1	−1	0
38	Finn Harps	1	−1	0
39	Leicester Celtic	1	−2	0
40	Mayfield Utd	1	−2	0
41	River Valley Rangers	1	−3	0
42	Fairview Rangers	1	−3	0
43	North End United	1	−3	0
44	Salthill Devon	1	−4	0