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Bohemians v Waterford

Bohemians

0–2Full time

Waterford

FAI Cup · FRI 9 OCT · Dalymount Park

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Bohemians 0–2 Waterford BOHEMIANS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bohemians win~~58%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.031

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.045

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bohemians win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bohemians was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–21–20
1′KICK-OFF Bohemians v Waterford
45′HALF-TIME Bohemians 0–0 Waterford
45′SECOND HALF Bohemians 0–0 Waterford
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Bohemians 0–1 Waterford
50′⚽ GOAL · 51' Bohemians 0–1 Waterford
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Bohemians 0–2 Waterford
57′⚽ GOAL · 58' Bohemians 0–2 Waterford
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Waterford
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Waterford
74′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Bohemians
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Bohemians
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Bohemians
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Waterford
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Waterford · On: J. Voilas · Off: T. Lonergan
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Waterford · On: D. McMenamy · Off: L. Heeney
85′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Bohemians
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Waterford · On: J. Faria · Off: C. Noonan
FTFULL TIME Bohemians 0–2 Waterford
FTBohemians 0–2 Waterford · Bohemians win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bohemians win58%

Draw23%

Waterford win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · Dalymount Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Bohemians

Formation not confirmed

25 P. Walters

16 D. Power

12 P. Hickey

24 C. Byrne

15 S. Mullen

10 D. Devoy

6 J. Flores

23 Z. Myers

26 R. Tierney

7 C. Parsons

18 D. James-Taylor

Coach · Alan Reynolds

Substitutes

1 · K. Chorazka

4 · N. Morahan

5 · S. Diallo

8 · H. Vaughan

9 · C. Whelan

11 · D. Rooney

17 · A. McDonnell

22 · S. Todd

41 · P. Madden

Waterford

Formation not confirmed

1 S. McMullan

16 H. Cann

5 J. Mahon

13 K. Long

3 B. Couto

2 J. Houston

7 N. Mawene

15 L. Heeney

10 C. Noonan

18 T. Lonergan

9 P. Amond

Coach · Graham Coughlan

Substitutes

21 · A. Doherty

6 · J. Ashton

11 · T. Coyle

12 · B. McKenzie

17 · J. Faria

20 · J. Voilas

27 · D. McMenamy

32 · G. Amedu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bohemians

Formation not confirmed

25 P. Walters

16 D. Power

12 P. Hickey

24 C. Byrne

15 S. Mullen

10 D. Devoy

6 J. Flores

23 Z. Myers

26 R. Tierney

7 C. Parsons

18 D. James-Taylor

Coach · Alan Reynolds

Substitutes

1 · K. Chorazka

4 · N. Morahan

5 · S. Diallo

8 · H. Vaughan

9 · C. Whelan

11 · D. Rooney

17 · A. McDonnell

22 · S. Todd

41 · P. Madden

Waterford

Formation not confirmed

1 S. McMullan

16 H. Cann

5 J. Mahon

13 K. Long

3 B. Couto

2 J. Houston

7 N. Mawene

15 L. Heeney

10 C. Noonan

18 T. Lonergan

9 P. Amond

Coach · Graham Coughlan

Substitutes

21 · A. Doherty

6 · J. Ashton

11 · T. Coyle

12 · B. McKenzie

17 · J. Faria

20 · J. Voilas

27 · D. McMenamy

32 · G. Amedu

Our number · bohemians winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

58% The market58%

Us58%

~~Market~~58%

We make Bohemians a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bohemians win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bohemians win	58%	58%	−1
Draw	23%	23%	0
Waterford win	20%	19%	0
Over 2.5 goals	60%	59%	+1
Both teams to score	58%	57%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	38%	38%	0
Bohemians or draw	80%	81%	0
Bohemians clean sheet	33%	–	–
Waterford clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.2 4.2 2.7 1 8.3 10.5 5.4 2 9.0 9.7 5.4 3 6.0 6.6 3.6 4 3.1 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bohemians down, Waterford across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,066 Premier Division matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.6% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 2.53 goals a meeting; 9 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bohemians at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Waterford away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Bohemians, 1.10 for Waterford. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.53

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 15

~~Both scored~~9 of 15

~~Last meetings~~WAT 3–1 BOH · BOH 1–1 WAT · WAT 0–1 BOH · BOH 2–1 WAT

Form · last six in FAI Cup

BOHEMIANS

LWWWWW1–3 · 5–3 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

WATERFORD

WDWDDL3–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Derry City	3	+6	9
2	Waterford	3	+5	9
3	Galway United	3	+5	7
4	Dundalk	3	+8	6
5	Drogheda United	3	+6	6
6	Sligo Rovers	3	+5	6
7	College Corinthians	3	−1	6
8	Castlebar Celtic	3	−4	6
9	St Patrick's Athl.	3	+1	5
10	Bohemians	2	+4	4
11	Bray Wanderers	2	+1	4
12	Longford Town	2	+4	3
13	Bangor Celtic	2	+2	3
14	Athlone Town	2	+2	3
15	Crumlin United	2	0	3
16	Tolka Rovers	2	0	3
17	UCD	2	0	3
18	Douglas Hall	2	0	3
19	St Mochta's	2	−1	3
20	Midleton	2	−1	3
21	Baldoyle United	2	−6	3
22	Shamrock Rovers	2	0	2
23	Shelbourne	1	0	1
24	UCC	1	0	1
25	Cork City	1	0	1
26	Liffeys Wanderers	1	0	1
27	Ringmahon Rangers	1	0	1
28	St. Michaels	1	0	1
29	Kerry	2	−4	1
30	Lucan United	2	−4	1
31	Janesboro	2	−4	1
32	Wayside Celtic	1	−1	0
33	Cobh Ramblers	1	−1	0
34	Killester Donnycarney	1	−1	0
35	Treaty United	1	−1	0
36	Wexford	1	−1	0
37	Fanad United	1	−1	0
38	Finn Harps	1	−1	0
39	Leicester Celtic	1	−2	0
40	Mayfield Utd	1	−2	0
41	River Valley Rangers	1	−3	0
42	Fairview Rangers	1	−3	0
43	North End United	1	−3	0
44	Salthill Devon	1	−4	0