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Zakho v Newroz

Zakho

0–1Full time

Newroz

Iraqi League · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 18:32

Zakho 0–1 Newroz ZAKHO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zakho win~~39%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.737

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.699

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Zakho win39%

Draw31%

Newroz win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zakho winPublished 9 Oct 16:01

39% The market34%

Us39%

~~Market~~34%

We make Zakho a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · zakho win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 34% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zakho win	39%	34%	+5
Draw	31%	35%	−4
Newroz win	30%	32%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	39%	40%	0
Both teams to score	46%	47%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	67%	64%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	20%	22%	−2
Zakho or draw	70%	68%	+2
Zakho clean sheet	36%	–	–
Newroz clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 11.9 9.6 5.6 1 11.4 14.3 6.8 2.4 2 7.8 7.9 4.1 3 3.2 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zakho down, Newroz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,362 Iraqi League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.3% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zakho at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Newroz away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.23 goals for Zakho, 1.04 for Newroz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NEW 2–1 ZAK · ZAK 4–0 NEW · NEW 0–0 ZAK

Form · last six in Iraqi League

ZAKHO

DLDDWL2–2 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

NEWROZ

LDWWWD0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	8	+9	20
2	Al Zawra'a	9	+9	18
3	Erbil	9	+9	18
4	Al Shorta	9	+5	16
5	Naft	8	+4	15
6	Newroz	8	+5	12
7	Duhok	9	+3	12
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	+2	11
9	Al Talaba	9	−1	11
10	Al-Jolan SC	8	−1	10
11	Diyala	8	−1	9
12	Al Minaa Basra	8	−2	9
13	Zakho	8	−4	9
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	−1	8
15	Naft Maysan	9	−5	8
16	Mosul	9	−6	8
17	Al Karkh	8	−4	7
18	Al Kahrabaa	8	−4	7
19	Gharraf	8	−8	5
20	Karbala	8	−9	5