Zakho v Erbil prediction · Iraqi League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 17:30

Zakho 2–1 Erbil ERBIL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Erbil win~~35%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.646

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.706

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Erbil win at 35%.
1′Much as we predicted: Erbil was 35% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 34–31–35
1′KICK-OFF Zakho v Erbil
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Erbil win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Zakho 0–0 Erbil
46′SECOND HALF Zakho 0–0 Erbil
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Erbil win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
60′We said Erbil at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–54–23
68′We said Erbil at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–62–19
69′A goal for Erbil on 69′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–16–82
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Zakho 0–1 Erbil
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Erbil win: 35% at kick-off, 82% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Erbil win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 63%)
70′We published Erbil at 35%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 2–16–82
74′We published Erbil at 35%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Erbil win: 35% at kick-off, 85% now
80′Zakho score on 80′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 11–79–11
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Zakho 1–1 Erbil
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Erbil win: 35% at kick-off, 11% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Erbil win 89%)
81′We said Erbil at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–1 · 10–81–10
81′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 10–81–10
82′We said Erbil at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–82–9
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Erbil win: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
89′We said Erbil at 35%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
100′Zakho find the net on 90′. 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
100′⚽ GOAL · 90+10' Zakho 2–1 Erbil
100′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+10' Zakho win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
101′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Zakho 2–1 Erbil
FTZakho 2–1 Erbil · Erbil win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Erbil just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Zakho 34%, draw 31%, Erbil 35%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Zakho v ErbilBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Zakho win34%

Draw31%

Erbil win35%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zakho

Erbil

5Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 18 Oct · Iraqi League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Erbil	10	+8	18
15	Zakho	10	−7	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · erbil winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

35% The market38%

Us35%

~~Market~~38%

We make Erbil a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zakho v Erbil~~1.15 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 18~~15 v 5

~~The market · Erbil win~~38% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Erbil win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zakho win	34%	32%	+2
Draw	31%	30%	+1
Erbil win	35%	38%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	40%	43%	−3
Both teams to score	48%	49%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	67%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	24%	−4
Zakho or draw	65%	62%	+3
Zakho clean sheet	32%	–	–
Erbil clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 11.4 10.4 6.7 2.6 1 10.3 14.2 7.5 2.9 2 6.6 7.5 4.3 3 2.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zakho down, Erbil across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,377 Iraqi League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zakho at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Erbil away: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Zakho, 1.16 for Erbil. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ZAK 1–2 ERB · ERB 0–1 ZAK · ERB 0–0 ZAK · ZAK 3–1 ERB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 4 Sept

ZAKHO

DDWLLL0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

ERBIL

DWLWDL0–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	10	+10	24
2	Newroz	10	+12	21
3	Naft	10	+8	21
4	Al Zawra'a	10	+8	18
5	Erbil	10	+8	18
6	Al Shorta	10	+5	17
7	Al-Jolan SC	10	+1	14
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	+2	12
9	Duhok	10	+1	12
10	Diyala	10	−1	12
11	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
12	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	−2	11
13	Al Talaba	10	−4	11
14	Mosul	10	−5	11
15	Zakho	10	−7	9
16	Gharraf	10	−7	9
17	Al Karkh	10	−3	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	−5	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
20	Karbala	10	−10	6