Newroz v Diyala

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Newroz win at 48%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Newroz 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–29–23
3. 1′KICK-OFF Newroz v Diyala
4. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Newroz win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
5. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Newroz win 40%)
6. 45′HALF-TIME Newroz 0–0 Diyala
7. 46′SECOND HALF Newroz 0–0 Diyala
8. 47′We said Newroz at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 0–0 · 36–44–20
9. 52′We said Newroz at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–47–19
10. 61′We said Newroz at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
11. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Newroz win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
12. 69′We said Newroz at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–62–14
13. 75′We said Newroz at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–70–11
14. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Newroz win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
15. 78′Newroz are down to ten from 77′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 16–75–10
16. 78′🟥 RED CARD · 77' Newroz
17. 80′We said Newroz at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–78–8
18. 84′We said Newroz at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
19. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Newroz win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
20. 91′We said Newroz at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
21. FTFULL TIME Newroz 0–0 Diyala
22. FTNewroz 0–0 Diyala · Newroz win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.