Newroz v Al Minaa Basra prediction · Iraqi League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 18:31

Newroz 2–0 Al Minaa Basra NEWROZ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Newroz win~~47%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.420

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.401

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Newroz win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Newroz was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–24
1′KICK-OFF Newroz v Al Minaa Basra
33′Newroz find the net on 33′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–17–6
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Newroz 1–0 Al Minaa Basra
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Newroz win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
34′We published Newroz at 47%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–17–5
34′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 78–17–5
45′HALF-TIME Newroz 2–0 Al Minaa Basra
46′SECOND HALF Newroz 2–0 Al Minaa Basra
48′We published Newroz at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
48′A goal for Newroz on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Newroz 2–0 Al Minaa Basra
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Newroz win: 47% at kick-off, 96% now
49′We published Newroz at 47%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–0
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Newroz win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
79′We published Newroz at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Newroz 2–0 Al Minaa Basra
FTNewroz 2–0 Al Minaa Basra · Newroz win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Newroz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Newroz 47%, draw 29%, Al Minaa Basra 23%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Newroz v Al Minaa BasraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Newroz win47%

Draw29%

Al Minaa Basra win23%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Newroz

Al Minaa Basra

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 10 Oct · Iraqi League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Newroz	9	+10	18
8	Al Minaa Basra	9	0	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · newroz winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

47% The market48%

Us47%

~~Market~~48%

We make Newroz a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Newroz v Al Minaa Basra~~1.42 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 12~~2 v 8

~~The market · Newroz win~~48% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Newroz win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newroz win	47%	48%	−1
Draw	29%	29%	0
Al Minaa Basra win	23%	23%	0
Over 2.5 goals	41%	42%	−1
Both teams to score	46%	47%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	69%	67%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	22%	−1
Newroz or draw	77%	77%	0
Newroz clean sheet	40%	–	–
Al Minaa Basra clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.2 7.7 4.1 1 12.5 13.6 5.7 2 9.6 8.7 4.0 3 4.6 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Newroz down, Al Minaa Basra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,367 Iraqi League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Newroz at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al Minaa Basra away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Newroz, 0.92 for Al Minaa Basra. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NEW 4–1 ALM · ALM 1–1 NEW · NEW 1–0 ALM · ALM 1–5 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 30 Aug

NEWROZ

DWWWDW0–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

AL MINAA BASRA

LLDLDW0–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	9	+10	23
2	Newroz	9	+10	18
3	Al Zawra'a	9	+9	18
4	Erbil	9	+9	18
5	Naft	9	+6	18
6	Al Shorta	9	+5	16
7	Duhok	9	+3	12
8	Al Minaa Basra	9	0	12
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	+2	11
10	Al-Jolan SC	9	−1	11
11	Diyala	9	−3	9
12	Zakho	9	−5	9
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	−3	8
14	Al Kahrabaa	9	−4	8
15	Al Talaba	9	−5	8
16	Naft Maysan	9	−5	8
17	Mosul	9	−6	8
18	Al Karkh	9	−5	7
19	Gharraf	9	−8	6
20	Karbala	9	−9	6