Naft v Zakho prediction · Iraqi League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Naft 2–0 Zakho DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.683

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 32–36–32
1′KICK-OFF Naft v Zakho
5′Naft score on 5′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
5′We said the draw at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Naft 1–0 Zakho
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 20% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Naft win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 20%)
15′GOAL DISALLOWED · 15' Naft
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 39% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Naft win 31%)
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 46% now
40′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 48%. 0–0 · 26–48–26
44′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 50%. 0–0 · 25–50–25
45′HALF-TIME Naft 0–0 Zakho
51′SECOND HALF Naft 0–0 Zakho
52′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 55%. 0–0 · 23–55–23
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 56% now
59′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 60%. 0–0 · 20–60–20
65′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–0 · 18–65–17
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 66% now
70′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–0 · 15–70–15
74′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–0 · 13–75–12
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
78′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–0 · 10–80–10
82′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–0 · 7–86–7
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
85′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–0 · 5–90–5
91′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–0 · 2–95–2
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Naft 2–0 Zakho
FTNaft 2–0 Zakho · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Naft 33%, draw 36%, Zakho 32%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Naft v ZakhoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Naft win33%

Draw36%

Zakho win32%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:45

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Naft

Zakho

8Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Iraqi League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Naft	9	+6	18
13	Zakho	9	−5	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The model expects 0.9–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Naft v Zakho~~0.90 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 9~~5 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naft win	33%	–	–
Draw	36%	–	–
Zakho win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	54%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Naft or draw	68%	–	–
Naft clean sheet	42%	–	–
Zakho clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.4%

0123450 18.4 13.6 6.6 1 13.8 14.4 5.8 2 6.8 5.9 2.6 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naft down, Zakho across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,371 Iraqi League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.2% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Naft at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Zakho away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Naft, 0.88 for Zakho. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NAF 1–1 ZAK · ZAK 2–0 NAF · ZAK 2–1 NAF · NAF 2–0 ZAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 29 Aug

NAFT

DWLWWW0–0 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

ZAKHO

LDDWLL0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	9	+10	23
2	Newroz	10	+12	21
3	Al Zawra'a	9	+9	18
4	Erbil	9	+9	18
5	Naft	9	+6	18
6	Al Shorta	9	+5	16
7	Duhok	9	+3	12
8	Diyala	10	−1	12
9	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	+2	11
11	Al-Jolan SC	9	−1	11
12	Al Talaba	10	−4	11
13	Zakho	9	−5	9
14	Gharraf	10	−7	9
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	−3	8
16	Al Kahrabaa	10	−5	8
17	Mosul	9	−6	8
18	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
19	Al Karkh	9	−5	7
20	Karbala	10	−10	6