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Naft v Diyala

Naft

2–0Full time

Diyala

Iraqi League · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:30

Naft 2–0 Diyala NAFT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Naft win~~40%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.548

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.433

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Naft win at 40%.
45′HALF-TIME Naft 0–0 Diyala
46′SECOND HALF Naft 0–0 Diyala
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Naft 1–0 Diyala
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Naft 1–0 Diyala
90′⚽ GOAL · 96' Naft 2–0 Diyala
FTNaft 2–0 Diyala · Naft win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Naft win40%

Draw34%

Diyala win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:45

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · naft winPublished 9 Oct 17:35

40% The market46%

Us40%

~~Market~~46%

We make Naft a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · naft win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naft win	40%	46%	−7
Draw	34%	29%	+5
Diyala win	26%	24%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	29%	41%	−12
Both teams to score	37%	46%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	57%	66%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	12%	21%	−9
Naft or draw	74%	76%	−2
Naft clean sheet	45%	–	–
Diyala clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.0%

0123450 17.0 11.2 5.0 1 15.1 14.2 5.2 2 8.7 6.9 2.8 3 3.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naft down, Diyala across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,362 Iraqi League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.3% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Naft at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Diyala away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Naft, 0.80 for Diyala. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DIY 1–0 NAF · NAF 2–1 DIY · NAF 2–0 DIY · DIY 0–0 NAF

Form · last six in Iraqi League

NAFT

DDWLWW1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–0

DIYALA

DDLLWD2–2 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	8	+9	20
2	Al Zawra'a	9	+9	18
3	Erbil	9	+9	18
4	Al Shorta	9	+5	16
5	Naft	8	+4	15
6	Newroz	8	+5	12
7	Duhok	9	+3	12
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	+2	11
9	Al Talaba	9	−1	11
10	Al-Jolan SC	8	−1	10
11	Diyala	8	−1	9
12	Al Minaa Basra	8	−2	9
13	Zakho	8	−4	9
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	−1	8
15	Naft Maysan	9	−5	8
16	Mosul	9	−6	8
17	Al Karkh	8	−4	7
18	Al Kahrabaa	8	−4	7
19	Gharraf	8	−8	5
20	Karbala	8	−9	5