Karbala v Gharraf prediction · Iraqi League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 18:31

Karbala 1–2 Gharraf GHARRAF WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gharraf win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.573

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gharraf win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gharraf 38% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 31–29–39
1′KICK-OFF Karbala v Gharraf
5′Gharraf score on 5′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 11–20–69
5′We said Gharraf at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 11–20–69
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Karbala 0–1 Gharraf
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Gharraf win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
11′We said Gharraf at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 8–20–72
44′We said Gharraf at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
45′HALF-TIME Karbala 0–1 Gharraf
46′7′: H. Dakhel on the scoresheet for Gharraf, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–19–75
46′SECOND HALF Karbala 0–1 Gharraf
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Gharraf win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
61′We said Gharraf at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
71′We said Gharraf at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
75′Gharraf find the net on 74′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
75′We said Gharraf at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Karbala 0–2 Gharraf
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Gharraf win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
81′A goal for Karbala on 81′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–8–91
81′We said Gharraf at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 1–2 · 0–8–91
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Karbala 1–2 Gharraf
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Gharraf win: 38% at kick-off, 91% now
82′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–7–92
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Gharraf win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Karbala 1–2 Gharraf
FTKarbala 1–2 Gharraf · Gharraf win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gharraf are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Karbala 30%, draw 32%, Gharraf 38%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Karbala v GharrafBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Karbala win30%

Draw32%

Gharraf win38%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Karbala

Gharraf

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 9 Oct · Iraqi League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	Gharraf	9	−8	6
20	Karbala	9	−9	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gharraf winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Gharraf a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Karbala v Gharraf~~1.01 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 6~~20 v 19

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gharraf win

Published at 39%, 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Karbala win	30%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Gharraf win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Karbala or draw	62%	–	–
Karbala clean sheet	31%	–	–
Gharraf clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 12.9 11.9 7.7 3.1 1 10.1 14.4 7.6 3.0 2 5.8 6.6 3.8 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Karbala down, Gharraf across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,367 Iraqi League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Karbala at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gharraf away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Karbala, 1.17 for Gharraf. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 30 Aug

KARBALA

LWLLLD0–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 0–0

GHARRAF

LDLLLD0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	9	+10	23
2	Newroz	9	+10	18
3	Al Zawra'a	9	+9	18
4	Erbil	9	+9	18
5	Naft	9	+6	18
6	Al Shorta	9	+5	16
7	Duhok	9	+3	12
8	Al Minaa Basra	9	0	12
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	+2	11
10	Al-Jolan SC	9	−1	11
11	Diyala	9	−3	9
12	Zakho	9	−5	9
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	−3	8
14	Al Kahrabaa	9	−4	8
15	Al Talaba	9	−5	8
16	Naft Maysan	9	−5	8
17	Mosul	9	−6	8
18	Al Karkh	9	−5	7
19	Gharraf	9	−8	6
20	Karbala	9	−9	6