Ghaz Al Shamal v Naft Maysan prediction · Iraqi League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ghaz Al ShamalDrawNaft Maysan

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ghaz Al Shamal 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ghaz Al Shamal are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ghaz Al Shamal 39%, draw 32%, Naft Maysan 29%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Ghaz Al Shamal v Naft MaysanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ghaz Al Shamal win39%

Draw32%

Naft Maysan win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ghaz Al Shamal

Naft Maysan

6Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 16 Oct · Iraqi League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	−2	11
19	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ghaz al shamal winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

39% The market36%

Us39%

~~Market~~36%

We make Ghaz Al Shamal a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ghaz Al Shamal v Naft Maysan~~1.15 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 8~~15 v 19

~~The market · Ghaz Al Shamal win~~36% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ghaz Al Shamal win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ghaz Al Shamal win	39%	36%	+3
Draw	32%	31%	+1
Naft Maysan win	29%	34%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	35%	38%	−3
Both teams to score	42%	45%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	63%	63%	0
Over 3.5 goals	16%	19%	−3
Ghaz Al Shamal or draw	71%	66%	+5
Ghaz Al Shamal clean sheet	39%	–	–
Naft Maysan clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 13.9 10.5 5.5 1 12.9 14.3 6.2 2.0 2 8.1 7.5 3.5 3 3.1 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ghaz Al Shamal down, Naft Maysan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,384 Iraqi League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.5% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Ghaz Al Shamal at home: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 4). Naft Maysan away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Ghaz Al Shamal, 0.95 for Naft Maysan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 4 Sept

GHAZ AL SHAMAL

LDDDLW0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

NAFT MAYSAN

LDWLDL0–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	10	+10	24
2	Naft	11	+8	22
3	Newroz	10	+12	21
4	Al Shorta	11	+7	20
5	Erbil	11	+7	18
6	Al Zawra'a	11	+6	18
7	Al-Jolan SC	11	+2	17
8	Duhok	11	+4	15
9	Al Talaba	11	−3	14
10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	+1	12
11	Diyala	10	−1	12
12	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
13	Mosul	11	−5	12
14	Zakho	11	−6	12
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	−2	11
16	Gharraf	11	−7	10
17	Al Karkh	11	−5	9
18	Al Kahrabaa	11	−6	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
20	Karbala	11	−13	6