Ghaz Al Shamal v Al Zawra'a prediction · Iraqi League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Ghaz Al Shamal 1–0 Al Zawra'a AL ZAWRA'A WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Zawra'a win~~45%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.926

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.907

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Zawra'a win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Zawra'a was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 22–33–45
1′KICK-OFF Ghaz Al Shamal v Al Zawra'a
19′A goal for Ghaz Al Shamal on 18′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 59–26–16
19′We said Al Zawra'a at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 59–26–16
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Ghaz Al Shamal 1–0 Al Zawra'a
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Al Zawra'a win: 45% at kick-off, 16% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Ghaz Al Shamal win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Al Zawra'a win 16%)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Al Zawra'a win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
24′We said Al Zawra'a at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–26–14
30′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 62–26–13
43′We said Al Zawra'a at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9
45′HALF-TIME Ghaz Al Shamal 1–0 Al Zawra'a
46′SECOND HALF Ghaz Al Shamal 1–0 Al Zawra'a
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Al Zawra'a win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
63′We said Al Zawra'a at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
FTFULL TIME Ghaz Al Shamal 1–0 Al Zawra'a
FTGhaz Al Shamal 1–0 Al Zawra'a · Al Zawra'a win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Zawra'a are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ghaz Al Shamal 22%, draw 33%, Al Zawra'a 45%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Ghaz Al Shamal v Al Zawra'aBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ghaz Al Shamal win22%

Draw33%

Al Zawra'a win45%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ghaz Al Shamal

Al Zawra'a

8Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 13 Oct · AGCFF Gulf Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al Zawra'a	9	+9	18
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al zawra'a winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market47%

Us45%

~~Market~~47%

We make Al Zawra'a a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ghaz Al Shamal v Al Zawra'a~~0.72 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 18~~15 v 4

~~The market · Al Zawra'a win~~47% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Zawra'a win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ghaz Al Shamal win	22%	23%	−1
Draw	33%	30%	+3
Al Zawra'a win	45%	47%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	29%	39%	−10
Both teams to score	36%	44%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	57%	64%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	12%	20%	−8
Ghaz Al Shamal or draw	55%	53%	+2
Ghaz Al Shamal clean sheet	32%	–	–
Al Zawra'a clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.8%

0123450 16.8 16.3 10.2 4.0 1 9.8 13.7 7.2 2.8 2 4.0 4.5 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ghaz Al Shamal down, Al Zawra'a across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,374 Iraqi League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.1% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Ghaz Al Shamal at home: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Al Zawra'a away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.72 goals for Ghaz Al Shamal, 1.16 for Al Zawra'a. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 29 Aug

GHAZ AL SHAMAL

WLDDDL1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

AL ZAWRA'A

WDWWWL4–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	10	+10	24
2	Newroz	10	+12	21
3	Naft	10	+8	21
4	Al Zawra'a	9	+9	18
5	Erbil	9	+9	18
6	Al Shorta	9	+5	16
7	Al-Jolan SC	10	+1	14
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	+2	12
9	Duhok	10	+1	12
10	Diyala	10	−1	12
11	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
12	Al Talaba	10	−4	11
13	Zakho	10	−7	9
14	Gharraf	10	−7	9
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	−3	8
16	Al Kahrabaa	10	−5	8
17	Mosul	9	−6	8
18	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
19	Al Karkh	9	−5	7
20	Karbala	10	−10	6