Gharraf v Naft prediction · Iraqi League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:00

Gharraf 0–0 Naft DRAW · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said a draw~~36%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.620

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.700

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 29–36–35
1′KICK-OFF Gharraf v Naft
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 46% now
39′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 48%. 0–0 · 24–48–28
43′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 50%. 0–0 · 23–50–27
45′HALF-TIME Gharraf 0–0 Naft
46′SECOND HALF Gharraf 0–0 Naft
52′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 55%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 56% now
59′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 60%. 0–0 · 19–60–21
65′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–0 · 16–65–18
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 66% now
71′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–0 · 13–72–15
74′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–0 · 12–75–13
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 76% now
78′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–0 · 9–80–10
81′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–0 · 7–85–8
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 86% now
85′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–0 · 5–90–5
91′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–0 · 2–95–2
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Gharraf 0–0 Naft
FTGharraf 0–0 Naft · Draw: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Gharraf 29%, draw 36%, Naft 35%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Gharraf v NaftBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Gharraf win29%

Draw36%

Naft win35%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gharraf

Naft

6Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 17 Oct · Iraqi League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Naft	10	+8	21
16	Gharraf	10	−7	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

36% The market32%

Us36%

~~Market~~32%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The market has it at 32%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gharraf v Naft~~0.82 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 3 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 21~~16 v 3

~~The market · Draw~~32% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gharraf win	29%	28%	+1
Draw	36%	32%	+4
Naft win	35%	40%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	26%	35%	−9
Both teams to score	35%	43%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	53%	60%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	10%	17%	−7
Gharraf or draw	65%	60%	+5
Gharraf clean sheet	40%	–	–
Naft clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.9%

0123450 18.9 14.8 7.4 2.3 1 13.1 14.2 6.0 2 5.9 5.4 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gharraf down, Naft across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,377 Iraqi League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gharraf at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Naft away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.82 goals for Gharraf, 0.93 for Naft. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NAF 1–0 GHA · GHA 2–0 NAF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 3 Sept

GHARRAF

DLLLDW0–0 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–1

NAFT

WLWWWW3–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	10	+10	24
2	Newroz	10	+12	21
3	Naft	10	+8	21
4	Al Zawra'a	10	+8	18
5	Erbil	10	+8	18
6	Al Shorta	10	+5	17
7	Al-Jolan SC	10	+1	14
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	+2	12
9	Duhok	10	+1	12
10	Diyala	10	−1	12
11	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
12	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	−2	11
13	Al Talaba	10	−4	11
14	Mosul	10	−5	11
15	Zakho	10	−7	9
16	Gharraf	10	−7	9
17	Al Karkh	10	−3	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	−5	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
20	Karbala	10	−10	6