Erbil v Mosul

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Erbil win at 53%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Erbil 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–27–21
3. 1′KICK-OFF Erbil v Mosul
4. 32′PENALTY MISSED · 32' Erbil
5. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Erbil win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
6. 39′PENALTY MISSED · 29' Miullen · Erbil
7. 45′We said Erbil at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–39–20
8. 45′HALF-TIME Erbil 0–0 Mosul
9. 46′SECOND HALF Erbil 0–0 Mosul
10. 49′We said Erbil at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–41–19
11. 50′Mosul find the net on 50′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–26–61
12. 50′We said Erbil at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–1 · 13–26–61
13. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Erbil 0–1 Mosul
14. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Erbil win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
15. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Mosul win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Draw 26%)
16. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Erbil win 38%)
17. 56′Mosul ahead on 48′ through Y. Osama Nabih. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–26–64
18. 58′We said Erbil at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–65
19. 71′We said Erbil at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
20. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Erbil win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
21. FTFULL TIME Erbil 0–1 Mosul
22. FTErbil 0–1 Mosul · Erbil win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.