Erbil v Ghaz Al Shamal prediction · Iraqi League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ErbilDrawGhaz Al Shamal

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Erbil 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Erbil are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Erbil 47%, draw 31%, Ghaz Al Shamal 22%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Erbil v Ghaz Al ShamalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Erbil win47%

Draw31%

Ghaz Al Shamal win22%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueFranso Hariri Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Erbil

Ghaz Al Shamal

8Days since last match12

Last match: 22 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 18 Oct · Iraqi League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Erbil	11	+7	18
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · erbil winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Erbil a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Erbil v Ghaz Al Shamal~~1.31 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 11~~5 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Erbil win	47%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Ghaz Al Shamal win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Erbil or draw	78%	–	–
Erbil clean sheet	45%	–	–
Ghaz Al Shamal clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 13.8 8.6 3.9 1 14.7 13.6 5.0 2 10.3 8.0 3.2 3 4.6 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Erbil down, Ghaz Al Shamal across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,386 Iraqi League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.8% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Erbil at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ghaz Al Shamal away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Erbil, 0.80 for Ghaz Al Shamal. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 4 Sept

ERBIL

WLWDLL2–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

GHAZ AL SHAMAL

LDDDLW0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	10	+10	24
2	Newroz	11	+12	22
3	Naft	11	+8	22
4	Al Shorta	11	+7	20
5	Erbil	11	+7	18
6	Al Zawra'a	11	+6	18
7	Al-Jolan SC	11	+2	17
8	Duhok	11	+4	15
9	Al Talaba	11	−3	14
10	Diyala	11	−1	13
11	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	+1	12
12	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
13	Mosul	11	−5	12
14	Zakho	11	−6	12
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	−2	11
16	Gharraf	11	−7	10
17	Al Karkh	11	−5	9
18	Al Kahrabaa	11	−6	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
20	Karbala	11	−13	6