Duhok v Karbala

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Duhok win at 56%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Duhok 56% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–26–18
3. 1′KICK-OFF Duhok v Karbala
4. 11′A goal for Karbala on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 28–25–47
5. 11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Duhok 0–1 Karbala
6. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Duhok win: 56% at kick-off, 28% now
7. 11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Karbala win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Duhok win 54%)
8. 12′We said Duhok at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–25–47
9. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Duhok win: 56% at kick-off, 26% now
10. 18′Duhok score on 17′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 52–30–19
11. 18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Duhok 1–1 Karbala
12. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Duhok win: 56% at kick-off, 52% now
13. 18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Duhok win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Karbala win 48%)
14. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Duhok win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
15. 41′Duhok find the net on 40′. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–14–4
16. 41′We said Duhok at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–1 · 82–14–4
17. 41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Duhok 2–1 Karbala
18. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Duhok win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
19. 42′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–14–4
20. 44′GOAL DISALLOWED · 44' Duhok
21. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Duhok win: 56% at kick-off, 43% now
22. 45′HALF-TIME Duhok 1–1 Karbala
23. 46′SECOND HALF Duhok 1–1 Karbala
24. 52′We said Duhok at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–44–17
25. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Duhok win 41%)
26. 53′Duhok find the net on 53′. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–14–3
27. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Duhok 2–1 Karbala
28. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Duhok win: 56% at kick-off, 83% now
29. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Duhok win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 45%)
30. 59′We said Duhok at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
31. 61′A goal for Karbala on 60′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 34–51–15
32. 61′We said Duhok at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–51–15
33. 61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Duhok 2–2 Karbala
34. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Duhok win: 56% at kick-off, 34% now
35. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Duhok win 85%)
36. 62′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 33–52–15
37. 69′Duhok score on 69′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 87–11–1
38. 69′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 87–11–1
39. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Duhok 3–2 Karbala
40. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Duhok win: 56% at kick-off, 87% now
41. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Duhok win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 60%)
42. 73′68′: Y. Hammood on the scoresheet for Duhok, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 89–10–1
43. 74′Duhok find the net on 74′. 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
44. 74′We said Duhok at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 4–2 · 99–1–0
45. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Duhok 4–2 Karbala
46. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Duhok win: 56% at kick-off, 99% now
47. 75′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 99–1–0
48. 79′We said Duhok at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
49. 85′Duhok ahead on 73′ through B. Othman. 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
50. 95′A goal for Duhok on 90′ — 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
51. 95′7 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 5–2 · 100–0–0
52. 95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Duhok 5–2 Karbala
53. FTFULL TIME Duhok 5–2 Karbala
54. FTDuhok 5–2 Karbala · Duhok win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.