Diyala v Naft Maysan prediction · Iraqi League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Diyala 2–0 Naft Maysan DIYALA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Diyala win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.581

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Diyala win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Diyala was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Diyala v Naft Maysan
27′Diyala score on 27′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–10
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Diyala 1–0 Naft Maysan
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Diyala win: 38% at kick-off, 69% now
28′We published Diyala at 38%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–21–10
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–10
31′We published Diyala at 38%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–10
45′HALF-TIME Diyala 1–0 Naft Maysan
46′SECOND HALF Diyala 1–0 Naft Maysan
53′We published Diyala at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–5
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Diyala win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
66′We published Diyala at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
74′We published Diyala at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Diyala win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
81′We published Diyala at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
87′We published Diyala at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
89′Diyala find the net on 89′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′We published Diyala at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Diyala 2–0 Naft Maysan
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Diyala win: 38% at kick-off, over 99% now
90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' Diyala
97′🟥 RED CARD · 90+7' Naft Maysan
98′A red card for Naft Maysan on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 99–1–0
101′Diyala find the net on 90′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
101′⚽ GOAL · 90+11' Diyala 2–0 Naft Maysan
FTFULL TIME Diyala 2–0 Naft Maysan
FTDiyala 2–0 Naft Maysan · Diyala win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Diyala are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Diyala 38%, draw 30%, Naft Maysan 33%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Diyala v Naft MaysanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Diyala win38%

Draw30%

Naft Maysan win33%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Diyala

Naft Maysan

7Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 8 Oct · Iraqi League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Diyala	9	−3	9
16	Naft Maysan	9	−5	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · diyala winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Diyala a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Diyala v Naft Maysan~~1.29 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~11 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Diyala win	38%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Naft Maysan win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Diyala or draw	67%	–	–
Diyala clean sheet	31%	–	–
Naft Maysan clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.0 8.8 5.9 2.4 1 9.7 13.9 7.4 3.0 2 7.0 8.1 4.8 3 3.1 3.5 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Diyala down, Naft Maysan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,367 Iraqi League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Diyala at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Naft Maysan away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Diyala, 1.18 for Naft Maysan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DIY 1–0 NAF · NAF 1–1 DIY · NAF 0–1 DIY · DIY 3–1 NAF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 29 Aug

DIYALA

DLLWDL3–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

NAFT MAYSAN

DLDWLD1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	9	+10	23
2	Newroz	9	+10	18
3	Al Zawra'a	9	+9	18
4	Erbil	9	+9	18
5	Naft	9	+6	18
6	Al Shorta	9	+5	16
7	Duhok	9	+3	12
8	Al Minaa Basra	9	0	12
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	+2	11
10	Al-Jolan SC	9	−1	11
11	Diyala	9	−3	9
12	Zakho	9	−5	9
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	−3	8
14	Al Kahrabaa	9	−4	8
15	Al Talaba	9	−5	8
16	Naft Maysan	9	−5	8
17	Mosul	9	−6	8
18	Al Karkh	9	−5	7
19	Gharraf	9	−8	6
20	Karbala	9	−9	6