Al Zawra'a v Al Shorta prediction · Iraqi League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:02

Al Zawra'a 0–2 Al Shorta AL ZAWRA'A WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Zawra'a win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.956

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Zawra'a win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Zawra'a was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–32–21
1′KICK-OFF Al Zawra'a v Al Shorta
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Al Zawra'a win 40%)
40′Al Shorta find the net on 40′. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–26–63
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Al Zawra'a win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Al Zawra'a 0–1 Al Shorta
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Al Zawra'a win: 47% at kick-off, 11% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Al Shorta win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Draw 44%)
41′We said Al Zawra'a at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–26–63
41′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 11–26–63
45′HALF-TIME Al Zawra'a 0–1 Al Shorta
46′We said Al Zawra'a at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–65
46′SECOND HALF Al Zawra'a 0–1 Al Shorta
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Al Zawra'a win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
59′A goal for Al Shorta on 59′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
59′We said Al Zawra'a at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Al Zawra'a 0–2 Al Shorta
FTFULL TIME Al Zawra'a 0–2 Al Shorta
FTAl Zawra'a 0–2 Al Shorta · Al Zawra'a win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Zawra'a are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Zawra'a 47%, draw 32%, Al Shorta 21%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Al Zawra'a v Al ShortaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Zawra'a win47%

Draw32%

Al Shorta win21%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Zawra'a

Al Shorta

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Iraqi League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al Zawra'a	10	+8	18
6	Al Shorta	10	+5	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al zawra'a winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 21 Oct 03:56 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Al Zawra'a a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Zawra'a v Al Shorta~~1.24 – 0.72

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 3 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 18 v 17~~4 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Zawra'a win

Published at 31%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Zawra'a win	47%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Al Shorta win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Al Zawra'a or draw	79%	–	–
Al Zawra'a clean sheet	49%	–	–
Al Shorta clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.3%

0123450 15.6 9.1 3.7 1 16.3 13.4 4.5 2 10.7 7.5 2.7 3 4.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Zawra'a down, Al Shorta across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,380 Iraqi League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.0% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Al Zawra'a at home: 1.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Al Shorta away: 1.00 scored, 0.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Al Zawra'a, 0.72 for Al Shorta. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 3 Sept

AL ZAWRA'A

DWWWLL2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 0–1

AL SHORTA

DWDWDD0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	10	+10	24
2	Naft	11	+8	22
3	Newroz	10	+12	21
4	Al Zawra'a	10	+8	18
5	Erbil	11	+7	18
6	Al Shorta	10	+5	17
7	Al-Jolan SC	10	+1	14
8	Al Talaba	11	−3	14
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	+1	12
10	Duhok	10	+1	12
11	Diyala	10	−1	12
12	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
13	Zakho	11	−6	12
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	−2	11
15	Mosul	10	−5	11
16	Gharraf	11	−7	10
17	Al Karkh	10	−5	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	−5	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
20	Karbala	10	−10	6