Al Talaba v Al Quwa Al Jawiya prediction · Iraqi League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 21:00

Al Talaba 1–0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya AL QUWA AL JAWIYA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Quwa Al Jawiya win~~37%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.690

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.644

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Quwa Al Jawiya win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 32–31–37
1′KICK-OFF Al Talaba v Al Quwa Al Jawiya
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Al Quwa Al Jawiya win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Al Talaba 0–0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
46′SECOND HALF Al Talaba 0–0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+8' Al Quwa Al Jawiya win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
58′We said Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 23–52–25
61′We said Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–54–24
70′We said Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Al Quwa Al Jawiya win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
77′We said Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–74–14
82′Al Talaba score on 82′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 91–9–1
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Al Talaba 1–0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Al Quwa Al Jawiya win: 37% at kick-off, 1% now
82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Al Talaba win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 80%)
83′We said Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 1–0 · 92–8–0
FTFULL TIME Al Talaba 1–0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
FTAl Talaba 1–0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya · Al Quwa Al Jawiya win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Quwa Al Jawiya are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Talaba 32%, draw 30%, Al Quwa Al Jawiya 37%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Al Talaba v Al Quwa Al JawiyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Al Talaba win32%

Draw30%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya win37%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAl Talaba Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Talaba

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

6Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 17 Oct · Iraqi League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	+2	12
13	Al Talaba	10	−4	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al quwa al jawiya winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 18 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

37% The market32%

Us37%

~~Market~~32%

We make Al Quwa Al Jawiya a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Talaba v Al Quwa Al Jawiya~~1.11 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 3 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~13 v 8

~~The market · Al Quwa Al Jawiya win~~32% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Quwa Al Jawiya win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Talaba win	32%	34%	−2
Draw	30%	33%	−3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya win	37%	32%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	41%	43%	−2
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	68%	67%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	25%	−4
Al Talaba or draw	63%	68%	−5
Al Talaba clean sheet	30%	–	–
Al Quwa Al Jawiya clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 11.2 10.7 7.2 2.9 1 9.7 14.2 7.9 3.2 2 6.0 7.2 4.4 3 2.3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Talaba down, Al Quwa Al Jawiya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,377 Iraqi League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Talaba at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Quwa Al Jawiya away: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Al Talaba, 1.22 for Al Quwa Al Jawiya. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALQ 2–1 ALT · ALT 1–2 ALQ · ALT 1–1 ALQ · ALQ 1–1 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 3 Sept

AL TALABA

DWLDDW0–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0

AL QUWA AL JAWIYA

LWLDWD1–2 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	10	+10	24
2	Newroz	10	+12	21
3	Naft	10	+8	21
4	Al Zawra'a	10	+8	18
5	Erbil	10	+8	18
6	Al Shorta	10	+5	17
7	Al-Jolan SC	10	+1	14
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	+2	12
9	Duhok	10	+1	12
10	Diyala	10	−1	12
11	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
12	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	−2	11
13	Al Talaba	10	−4	11
14	Mosul	10	−5	11
15	Zakho	10	−7	9
16	Gharraf	10	−7	9
17	Al Karkh	10	−5	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	−5	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
20	Karbala	10	−10	6