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Al Shorta v Al Karkh

Al Shorta

1–1Full time

Al Karkh

Iraqi League · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:01

Al Shorta 1–1 Al Karkh AL SHORTA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Shorta win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.995

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Shorta win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Shorta 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–24–14
1′KICK-OFF Al Shorta v Al Karkh
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Al Shorta win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
41′We said Al Shorta at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 50%. 0–0 · 50–35–15
42′We said Al Shorta at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–36–15
45′HALF-TIME Al Shorta 0–0 Al Karkh
46′SECOND HALF Al Shorta 0–0 Al Karkh
52′We said Al Shorta at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–42–14
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 42–44–14
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Al Shorta win: 62% at kick-off, 42% now
56′Al Shorta are down to ten from 55′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 42–45–14
56′🟥 RED CARD · 55' Al Shorta
58′A goal for Al Karkh on 57′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–28–60
58′We said Al Shorta at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–28–60
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Al Shorta 0–1 Al Karkh
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Al Shorta win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Al Karkh win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Al Shorta win 12%)
62′Al Shorta score on 62′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 37–50–13
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Al Shorta 1–1 Al Karkh
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Al Shorta win: 62% at kick-off, 37% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Al Karkh win 13%)
63′We said Al Shorta at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 36–51–13
64′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 36–52–12
66′We said Al Shorta at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–54–12
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Al Shorta win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
71′We said Al Shorta at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–60–11
75′We said Al Shorta at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–66–9
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Al Shorta win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
80′We said Al Shorta at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–75–7
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Al Shorta win: 62% at kick-off, 11% now
87′We said Al Shorta at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–88–4
92′We said Al Shorta at 62%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Al Shorta win: 62% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Al Shorta 1–1 Al Karkh
FTAl Shorta 1–1 Al Karkh · Al Shorta win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Shorta are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Shorta 62%, draw 23%, Al Karkh 14%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Al Shorta v Al KarkhBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Shorta win62%

Draw23%

Al Karkh win14%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Shorta

Al Karkh

5Days since last match8

Last match: 13 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

Last match: 10 Oct · Iraqi League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Al Shorta	9	+5	16
19	Al Karkh	9	−5	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al shorta winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Al Shorta a 62% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Shorta v Al Karkh~~1.91 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 7~~6 v 19

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Shorta win	62%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Al Karkh win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Al Shorta or draw	86%	–	–
Al Shorta clean sheet	45%	–	–
Al Karkh clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.0%

0123450 7.9 4.4 2.2 1 11.8 11.0 4.0 2 12.0 9.4 3.8 3 7.7 6.0 2.4 4 3.7 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Shorta down, Al Karkh across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,374 Iraqi League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.1% of games this season, across 97 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Shorta at home: 0.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Al Karkh away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Al Shorta, 0.80 for Al Karkh. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALK 0–2 ALS · ALS 3–0 ALK · ALS 1–0 ALK · ALK 1–2 ALS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 29 Aug

AL SHORTA

WDWDWD2–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–0

AL KARKH

DLLWWL2–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	10	+10	24
2	Newroz	10	+12	21
3	Naft	10	+8	21
4	Al Zawra'a	9	+9	18
5	Erbil	9	+9	18
6	Al Shorta	9	+5	16
7	Al-Jolan SC	10	+1	14
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	+2	12
9	Duhok	10	+1	12
10	Diyala	10	−1	12
11	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
12	Al Talaba	10	−4	11
13	Zakho	10	−7	9
14	Gharraf	10	−7	9
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	−3	8
16	Al Kahrabaa	10	−5	8
17	Mosul	9	−6	8
18	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
19	Al Karkh	9	−5	7
20	Karbala	10	−10	6