Al Shorta v Newroz prediction · Iraqi League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al ShortaDrawNewroz

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Shorta 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Al Shorta just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Shorta 36%, draw 33%, Newroz 31%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Al Shorta v NewrozBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Al Shorta win36%

Draw33%

Newroz win31%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Shorta

Newroz

7Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 24 Oct · Iraqi League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Newroz	11	+12	22
4	Al Shorta	11	+7	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al shorta winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Al Shorta a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Shorta v Newroz~~1.06 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 8 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 20 v 22~~4 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Shorta win	36%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Newroz win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Al Shorta or draw	69%	–	–
Al Shorta clean sheet	38%	–	–
Newroz clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.5%

0123450 14.5 11.5 6.2 2.1 1 12.6 14.4 6.4 2.2 2 7.3 7.0 3.4 3 2.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Shorta down, Newroz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,384 Iraqi League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.5% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Al Shorta at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Newroz away: 0.83 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Al Shorta, 0.98 for Newroz. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 8 Sept

AL SHORTA

WDWDDW2–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

NEWROZ

WWDWWD3–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	10	+10	24
2	Newroz	11	+12	22
3	Naft	11	+8	22
4	Al Shorta	11	+7	20
5	Erbil	11	+7	18
6	Al Zawra'a	11	+6	18
7	Al-Jolan SC	11	+2	17
8	Duhok	11	+4	15
9	Al Talaba	11	−3	14
10	Diyala	11	−1	13
11	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	+1	12
12	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
13	Mosul	11	−5	12
14	Zakho	11	−6	12
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	−2	11
16	Gharraf	11	−7	10
17	Al Karkh	11	−5	9
18	Al Kahrabaa	11	−6	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
20	Karbala	11	−13	6