Al Quwa Al Jawiya v Al Minaa Basra prediction · Iraqi League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al Quwa Al JawiyaDrawAl Minaa Basra

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Quwa Al Jawiya 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Quwa Al Jawiya are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 58%, draw 26%, Al Minaa Basra 17%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Al Quwa Al Jawiya v Al Minaa BasraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Al Quwa Al Jawiya win58%

Draw26%

Al Minaa Basra win17%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Al Minaa Basra

8Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 24 Oct · Iraqi League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	+1	12
12	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al quwa al jawiya winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Al Quwa Al Jawiya a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Quwa Al Jawiya v Al Minaa Basra~~1.73 – 0.82

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 7 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~11 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Quwa Al Jawiya win	58%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Al Minaa Basra win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Al Quwa Al Jawiya or draw	83%	–	–
Al Quwa Al Jawiya clean sheet	44%	–	–
Al Minaa Basra clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%

0123450 9.1 5.5 2.7 1 12.5 12.0 4.5 2 11.5 9.3 3.8 3 6.7 5.4 2.2 4 2.9 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Quwa Al Jawiya down, Al Minaa Basra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,384 Iraqi League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.5% of games this season, across 107 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al Minaa Basra away: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Al Quwa Al Jawiya, 0.82 for Al Minaa Basra. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALM 0–2 ALQ · ALQ 1–0 ALM · ALM 2–2 ALQ · ALQ 2–1 ALM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 7 Sept

AL QUWA AL JAWIYA

WLDWDL3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

AL MINAA BASRA

DLDWLW1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	10	+10	24
2	Newroz	11	+12	22
3	Naft	11	+8	22
4	Al Shorta	11	+7	20
5	Erbil	11	+7	18
6	Al Zawra'a	11	+6	18
7	Al-Jolan SC	11	+2	17
8	Duhok	11	+4	15
9	Al Talaba	11	−3	14
10	Diyala	11	−1	13
11	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	+1	12
12	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
13	Mosul	11	−5	12
14	Zakho	11	−6	12
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	−2	11
16	Gharraf	11	−7	10
17	Al Karkh	11	−5	9
18	Al Kahrabaa	11	−6	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
20	Karbala	11	−13	6