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Al Quwa Al Jawiya v Al-Karma

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

0–0Full time

Al-Karma

Iraqi League · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 21:02

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–0 Al-Karma AL QUWA AL JAWIYA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Quwa Al Jawiya win~~39%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.729

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.756

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Quwa Al Jawiya win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Quwa Al Jawiya was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–31–30
1′KICK-OFF Al Quwa Al Jawiya v Al-Karma
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Al Quwa Al Jawiya win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–0 Al-Karma
46′SECOND HALF Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–0 Al-Karma
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+6' Al Quwa Al Jawiya win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
52′Al Quwa Al Jawiya find the net on 45′. 0–0 · 29–48–23
53′We published Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 39%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–19–5
53′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 77–19–5
53′⚽ GOAL · 45+7' Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1–0 Al-Karma
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+8' Al Quwa Al Jawiya win: 39% at kick-off, 77% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+8' Al Quwa Al Jawiya win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
56′We said Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 27–50–22
56′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+11' Al Quwa Al Jawiya
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+11' Al Quwa Al Jawiya win: 39% at kick-off, 27% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+11' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Al Quwa Al Jawiya win 27%)
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+12' Al Quwa Al Jawiya win: 39% at kick-off, 27% now
58′A red card for Al Quwa Al Jawiya on 58′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 26–52–22
58′🟥 RED CARD · 58' Al Quwa Al Jawiya
63′We said Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
71′We said Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Al Quwa Al Jawiya win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
76′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Al Quwa Al Jawiya
78′We said Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
83′We said Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Al Quwa Al Jawiya win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
87′PENALTY MISSED · 86' Al-Karma
90′We said Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Al Quwa Al Jawiya 0–0 Al-Karma
FTAl Quwa Al Jawiya 0–0 Al-Karma · Al Quwa Al Jawiya win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Quwa Al Jawiya are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 39%, draw 30%, Al-Karma 30%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Al Quwa Al Jawiya v Al-KarmaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Quwa Al Jawiya win39%

Draw30%

Al-Karma win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

Al-Karma

5Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

Last match: 10 Oct · Iraqi League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al quwa al jawiya winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market33%

Us39%

~~Market~~33%

We make Al Quwa Al Jawiya a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Quwa Al Jawiya v Al-Karma~~1.26 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 23~~10 v 1

~~The market · Al Quwa Al Jawiya win~~33% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Quwa Al Jawiya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Quwa Al Jawiya win	39%	33%	+6
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Al-Karma win	30%	38%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	41%	45%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	51%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	68%	69%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	24%	−3
Al Quwa Al Jawiya or draw	70%	62%	+8
Al Quwa Al Jawiya clean sheet	35%	–	–
Al-Karma clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 11.3 9.2 5.6 2.0 1 11.1 14.2 6.9 2.5 2 7.7 8.1 4.3 3 3.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Quwa Al Jawiya down, Al-Karma across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,371 Iraqi League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.2% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Karma away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Al Quwa Al Jawiya, 1.06 for Al-Karma. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALK 3–0 ALQ · ALQ 1–0 ALK · ALK 2–1 ALQ · ALQ 1–0 ALK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 29 Aug

AL QUWA AL JAWIYA

DLWLDW1–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

AL-KARMA

WWWWWW2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	9	+10	23
2	Newroz	10	+12	21
3	Al Zawra'a	9	+9	18
4	Erbil	9	+9	18
5	Naft	9	+6	18
6	Al Shorta	9	+5	16
7	Duhok	9	+3	12
8	Diyala	10	−1	12
9	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	+2	11
11	Al-Jolan SC	9	−1	11
12	Al Talaba	10	−4	11
13	Zakho	9	−5	9
14	Gharraf	10	−7	9
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	−3	8
16	Al Kahrabaa	10	−5	8
17	Mosul	9	−6	8
18	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
19	Al Karkh	9	−5	7
20	Karbala	10	−10	6