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Al Minaa Basra v Ghaz Al Shamal

Al Minaa Basra

2–0Full time

Ghaz Al Shamal

Iraqi League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Al Minaa Basra 2–0 Ghaz Al Shamal AL MINAA BASRA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Minaa Basra win~~34%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.656

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.465

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Minaa Basra win at 34%.
1′KICK-OFF Al Minaa Basra v Ghaz Al Shamal
2′Much as we predicted: Al Minaa Basra was 34% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–32–33
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Al Minaa Basra win 32%)
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Al Minaa Basra 1–0 Ghaz Al Shamal
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Al Minaa Basra win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Al Minaa Basra 1–0 Ghaz Al Shamal
46′SECOND HALF Al Minaa Basra 1–0 Ghaz Al Shamal
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Al Minaa Basra 2–0 Ghaz Al Shamal
82′🟥 RED CARD · 81' Al Minaa Basra
86′🟥 RED CARD · 81' H. Ali Barhi · Al Minaa Basra
FTFULL TIME Al Minaa Basra 2–0 Ghaz Al Shamal
FTAl Minaa Basra 2–0 Ghaz Al Shamal · Al Minaa Basra win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al Minaa Basra win34%

Draw34%

Ghaz Al Shamal win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al minaa basra winPublished 10 Oct 15:43

34% The market44%

Us34%

~~Market~~44%

We make Al Minaa Basra a 34% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al minaa basra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Minaa Basra win	34%	44%	−11
Draw	34%	30%	+3
Ghaz Al Shamal win	32%	25%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	31%	38%	−7
Both teams to score	40%	44%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	59%	62%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	14%	20%	−6
Al Minaa Basra or draw	68%	75%	−7
Al Minaa Basra clean sheet	38%	–	–
Ghaz Al Shamal clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.7%

0123450 15.7 12.3 6.6 2.2 1 12.7 14.5 6.4 2.1 2 6.9 6.6 3.2 3 2.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Minaa Basra down, Ghaz Al Shamal across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,365 Iraqi League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.9% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Al Minaa Basra at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ghaz Al Shamal away: 0.60 scored, 0.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Al Minaa Basra, 0.97 for Ghaz Al Shamal. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2020

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Iraqi League

AL MINAA BASRA

WLLDLD3–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

GHAZ AL SHAMAL

DWLDDD1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	8	+9	20
2	Al Zawra'a	9	+9	18
3	Erbil	9	+9	18
4	Naft	9	+6	18
5	Al Shorta	9	+5	16
6	Newroz	9	+6	15
7	Duhok	9	+3	12
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	+2	11
9	Al Talaba	9	−1	11
10	Al-Jolan SC	9	−1	11
11	Al Minaa Basra	8	−2	9
12	Diyala	9	−3	9
13	Zakho	9	−5	9
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	−1	8
15	Naft Maysan	9	−5	8
16	Mosul	9	−6	8
17	Al Karkh	8	−4	7
18	Al Kahrabaa	8	−4	7
19	Gharraf	9	−8	6
20	Karbala	8	−9	5