Al Minaa Basra v Al-Karma

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Karma win at 46%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Al-Karma was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 23–31–46
3. 1′KICK-OFF Al Minaa Basra v Al-Karma
4. 29′A red card for Al-Karma on 29′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 22–38–40
5. 29′🟥 RED CARD · 29' Al-Karma
6. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Al-Karma win 40%)
7. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Al-Karma win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
8. 45′HALF-TIME Al Minaa Basra 0–0 Al-Karma
9. 46′SECOND HALF Al Minaa Basra 0–0 Al-Karma
10. 47′We said Al-Karma at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 20–46–34
11. 53′A goal for Al Minaa Basra on 53′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–24–8
12. 53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Al Minaa Basra 1–0 Al-Karma
13. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Al-Karma win: 46% at kick-off, 8% now
14. 53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Al Minaa Basra win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 50%)
15. 54′We said Al-Karma at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 1–0 · 69–24–7
16. 54′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 69–24–7
17. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Al-Karma win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
18. 60′Al-Karma score on 60′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 17–55–28
19. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Al Minaa Basra 1–1 Al-Karma
20. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Al-Karma win: 46% at kick-off, 28% now
21. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Al Minaa Basra win 72%)
22. 61′We said Al-Karma at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 16–56–28
23. 66′We said Al-Karma at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 15–61–24
24. 73′We said Al-Karma at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 12–69–19
25. 74′Al Minaa Basra find the net on 74′. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–16–2
26. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Al Minaa Basra 2–1 Al-Karma
27. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Al-Karma win: 46% at kick-off, 2% now
28. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Al Minaa Basra win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 71%)
29. 75′We said Al-Karma at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 2–1 · 83–15–2
30. 75′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–15–2
31. FTFULL TIME Al Minaa Basra 2–1 Al-Karma
32. FTAl Minaa Basra 2–1 Al-Karma · Al-Karma win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.