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Al-Karma v Al Karkh

Al-Karma

3–2Full time

Al Karkh

Iraqi League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:01

Al-Karma 3–2 Al Karkh AL-KARMA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Karma win~~51%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.367

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.170

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Karma win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al-Karma 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–27–21
2′Little has changed for our model: Al-Karma 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–27–21
22′16′ and it is 2–0: Al-Karma have scored. 2–0 · 95–4–1
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Al-Karma win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Al-Karma win: 51% at kick-off, 52% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Al-Karma win: 51% at kick-off, 52% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Al-Karma win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Al-Karma win: 51% at kick-off, 52% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Al-Karma win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Al-Karma win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Al-Karma win: 51% at kick-off, 52% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Al-Karma win: 51% at kick-off, 52% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Al-Karma win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Al-Karma win: 51% at kick-off, 52% now
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Al-Karma win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
32′17′ and it is 2–0: W. Ramadan on the scoresheet for Al-Karma. 2–0 · 95–4–1
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Al-Karma win: 51% at kick-off, 52% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Al-Karma win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
42′17′ and it is 2–0: W. Ramadan on the scoresheet for Al-Karma. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Al-Karma 2–0 Al Karkh
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Al-Karma win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
46′SECOND HALF Al-Karma 2–0 Al Karkh
74′⚽ GOAL · 11' Al-Karma 2–0 Al Karkh · P. Bassene (assist S. Amadi)
74′⚽ GOAL · 17' Al-Karma 2–0 Al Karkh · W. Ramadan (assist A. Mouddane)
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Al-Karma 2–1 Al Karkh
76′⚽ GOAL · 11' Al-Karma 2–1 Al Karkh · P. Bassene (assist S. Amadi)
76′⚽ GOAL · 17' Al-Karma 2–1 Al Karkh · W. Ramadan (assist A. Mouddane)
76′⚽ GOAL · 74' Al-Karma 2–1 Al Karkh
77′⚽ GOAL · 11' Al-Karma 2–1 Al Karkh · P. Bassene (assist S. Amadi)
77′⚽ GOAL · 17' Al-Karma 2–1 Al Karkh · W. Ramadan (assist A. Mouddane)
77′⚽ GOAL · 74' Al-Karma 2–1 Al Karkh
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Al-Karma 3–1 Al Karkh
81′⚽ GOAL · 11' Al-Karma 3–1 Al Karkh · P. Bassene (assist S. Amadi)
81′⚽ GOAL · 17' Al-Karma 3–1 Al Karkh · W. Ramadan (assist A. Mouddane)
81′⚽ GOAL · 74' Al-Karma 3–1 Al Karkh · M. Soro Nanga
81′⚽ GOAL · 79' Al-Karma 3–1 Al Karkh
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Al-Karma 3–2 Al Karkh
FTFULL TIME Al-Karma 3–2 Al Karkh
FTAl-Karma 3–2 Al Karkh · Al-Karma win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al-Karma win51%

Draw29%

Al Karkh win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-karma winPublished 10 Oct 18:40

51% The market67%

Us51%

~~Market~~67%

We make Al-Karma a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al-karma win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Karma win	51%	67%	−16
Draw	29%	22%	+7
Al Karkh win	20%	12%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	41%	49%	−9
Both teams to score	45%	43%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	68%	72%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	21%	29%	−9
Al-Karma or draw	80%	88%	−9
Al-Karma clean sheet	43%	–	–
Al Karkh clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 11.3 7.2 3.5 1 13.4 13.2 5.1 2 10.6 8.8 3.7 3 5.3 4.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Karma down, Al Karkh across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,365 Iraqi League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.9% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Karma at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al Karkh away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Al-Karma, 0.84 for Al Karkh. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALK 0–0 ALK · ALK 1–1 ALK · ALK 0–1 ALK · ALK 0–1 ALK

Form · last six in Iraqi League

AL-KARMA

DWWWWW1–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

AL KARKH

LDLLWW0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	8	+9	20
2	Al Zawra'a	9	+9	18
3	Erbil	9	+9	18
4	Naft	9	+6	18
5	Al Shorta	9	+5	16
6	Newroz	9	+6	15
7	Duhok	9	+3	12
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	+2	11
9	Al Talaba	9	−1	11
10	Al-Jolan SC	9	−1	11
11	Al Minaa Basra	8	−2	9
12	Diyala	9	−3	9
13	Zakho	9	−5	9
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	−1	8
15	Naft Maysan	9	−5	8
16	Mosul	9	−6	8
17	Al Karkh	8	−4	7
18	Al Kahrabaa	8	−4	7
19	Gharraf	9	−8	6
20	Karbala	8	−9	5