Al Karkh v Mosul prediction · Iraqi League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:31

Al Karkh 1–1 Mosul AL KARKH WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Al Karkh win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.780

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Karkh win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Al Karkh v Mosul
2′Little has changed for our model: Al Karkh 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
31′Al Karkh find the net on 31′. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–9
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Al Karkh 1–0 Mosul
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Al Karkh win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
32′We said Al Karkh at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–9
32′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
45′HALF-TIME Al Karkh 1–1 Mosul
46′SECOND HALF Al Karkh 1–1 Mosul
47′We said Al Karkh at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
52′A goal for Mosul on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 31–44–24
52′⚽ GOAL · 45+7' Al Karkh 1–1 Mosul
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+7' Al Karkh win: 42% at kick-off, 31% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+7' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Al Karkh win 76%)
56′We said Al Karkh at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–47–23
57′We said Al Karkh at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–48–23
66′We said Al Karkh at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–56–19
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Al Karkh win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
74′We said Al Karkh at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
79′We said Al Karkh at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–11
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Al Karkh win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
84′We said Al Karkh at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–85–7
90′We said Al Karkh at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Al Karkh win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Al Karkh 1–1 Mosul
FTAl Karkh 1–1 Mosul · Al Karkh win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Karkh are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Karkh 42%, draw 28%, Mosul 30%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Al Karkh v MosulBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Karkh win42%

Draw28%

Mosul win30%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Karkh

Mosul

5Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Iraqi League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Mosul	10	−5	11
17	Al Karkh	10	−5	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al karkh winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Al Karkh a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Karkh v Mosul~~1.44 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 3 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 11~~17 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Karkh win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Karkh win	42%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Mosul win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Al Karkh or draw	70%	–	–
Al Karkh clean sheet	31%	–	–
Mosul clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 8.7 7.6 5.1 2.0 1 9.5 13.3 7.1 2.8 2 7.5 8.7 5.1 2.0 3 3.6 4.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Karkh down, Mosul across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,380 Iraqi League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.0% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Karkh at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mosul away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Al Karkh, 1.18 for Mosul. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MOS 1–2 ALK · ALK 2–2 MOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 3 Sept

AL KARKH

LLWWLD0–1 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 1–1

MOSUL

DLLLLW2–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	10	+10	24
2	Naft	11	+8	22
3	Newroz	10	+12	21
4	Al Zawra'a	10	+8	18
5	Erbil	11	+7	18
6	Al Shorta	10	+5	17
7	Al-Jolan SC	10	+1	14
8	Al Talaba	11	−3	14
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	+1	12
10	Duhok	10	+1	12
11	Diyala	10	−1	12
12	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
13	Zakho	11	−6	12
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	−2	11
15	Mosul	10	−5	11
16	Gharraf	11	−7	10
17	Al Karkh	10	−5	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	−5	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
20	Karbala	10	−10	6