Al Karkh v Gharraf prediction · Iraqi League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al KarkhDrawGharraf

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Karkh 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Karkh are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Karkh 43%, draw 30%, Gharraf 27%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Al Karkh v GharrafBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Al Karkh win43%

Draw30%

Gharraf win27%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Karkh

Gharraf

7Days since last match8

Last match: 23 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 22 Oct · Iraqi League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Gharraf	11	−7	10
17	Al Karkh	11	−5	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al karkh winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Al Karkh a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Karkh v Gharraf~~1.32 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 8 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~17 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Karkh win	43%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Gharraf win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Al Karkh or draw	73%	–	–
Al Karkh clean sheet	38%	–	–
Gharraf clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 11.5 8.7 4.9 1 11.9 14.0 6.3 2.1 2 8.6 8.4 4.1 3 3.8 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Karkh down, Gharraf across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,386 Iraqi League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.8% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Karkh at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Gharraf away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Al Karkh, 0.99 for Gharraf. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~GHA 2–2 ALK · ALK 1–0 GHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 8 Sept

AL KARKH

LWWLDD2–3 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

GHARRAF

LLLDWD1–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	10	+10	24
2	Newroz	11	+12	22
3	Naft	11	+8	22
4	Al Shorta	11	+7	20
5	Erbil	11	+7	18
6	Al Zawra'a	11	+6	18
7	Al-Jolan SC	11	+2	17
8	Duhok	11	+4	15
9	Al Talaba	11	−3	14
10	Diyala	11	−1	13
11	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	+1	12
12	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
13	Mosul	11	−5	12
14	Zakho	11	−6	12
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	−2	11
16	Gharraf	11	−7	10
17	Al Karkh	11	−5	9
18	Al Kahrabaa	11	−6	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
20	Karbala	11	−13	6